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The latest Lord Ashcroft marginals poll is out

The latest Lord Ashcroft marginals poll is out

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Latest @LordAshcroft marginal polling pic.twitter.com/WGcCn3nui7 — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) December 18, 2014 The latest round of Lord Ashcroft marginal polling is out. He says Two types of constituencies feature in my last round of marginals polling for 2014. First, the next tranche of seats the Conservatives are defending from Labour; second, a selection of seats where Labour may be under threat from UKIP. I have also returned to the solitary Green constituency, Brighton Pavilion. I have just been on the…

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Guardian ICM phone poll sees the Tories down 3 and the Lib Dems up 3

Guardian ICM phone poll sees the Tories down 3 and the Lib Dems up 3

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The Tories are down to their lowest share of the vote since May 2013 with ICM But the Lib Dems will be delighted as ICM is the third pollster this week to have them in double digits, two of them being phone pollsters. Guardian ICM phone poll makes grim reading for the Tories. But the Lib Dems are on the up. pic.twitter.com/vepvSt8G2r — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) December 17, 2014 But did George Osborne’s Autumn Statement contribute to the Tory…

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LDs up 3 to 12 – the big mover in this month’s ComRes phone poll for the Independent

LDs up 3 to 12 – the big mover in this month’s ComRes phone poll for the Independent

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CON/LAB/LD all up – UKIP/GREEN down The LDs will be delighted with this poll even though they are only half the level that they got at GE2010 – but this is a bit of progress. UKIP and the Greens are down while LAB and move up. It should emphasised that the long-standing ComRes series of phone polls for the Independent is completely separate from the monthly online surveys from the Indy on Sunday. Tonight’s poll also found that those sampled…

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Comres online poll sees the Blues up by 3 points

Comres online poll sees the Blues up by 3 points

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This month’s ComRes online poll for the Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror sees Labour’s lead reduced from 4% to 1%. It fits in with what we’ve seen in recent weeks and months with other pollsters, with there being very little between Tories and Labour, the Lib Dems will be delighted to see daylight between themselves and the Greens. Onto the supplementaries, Voters see the Conservatives as more right wing than the UK Independence Party. The poll asked people to…

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“The next CON leader will not be a white man” – Tory insider

“The next CON leader will not be a white man” – Tory insider

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Theresa May up 4% in ConHome party members’ next leader survey The comment in the heading for this post was made to me at a recent social event by someone I regard as a leading Tory insider. It certainly has a ring of truth about it given that the two contenders currently being talked about are Theresa May and Sajid Javid, the culture Secretary. This conversation took place before the latest ConHome findings from its regular party member surveys. Theresa…

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UKIP move up 3 to 19% in latest Lord Ashcroft phone poll

UKIP move up 3 to 19% in latest Lord Ashcroft phone poll

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LAB 31-1: CON 30=: LD 8+1: UKIP 19+3: GRN 5%-1 UKIP the main mover in this week's @LordAshcroft phone poll LAB 31-1: CON 30=: LD 8+1: UKIP 19+3: GRN 5%-1 pic.twitter.com/bRz4vZA8YR — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 8, 2014 How the alternative vote would have impacted on voting How AV might have impacted on election. Interesting data from @LordAshcroft pic.twitter.com/y7JphKsn77 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 8, 2014 Tories now level-pegging in England The England only-figures in today's @LordAshcroft poll see LAB &…

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My special plea to those in the media responsible for commissioning opinion polls

My special plea to those in the media responsible for commissioning opinion polls

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The constant flow of GB-wide surveys is giving a distorted picture of what is going on Just about every day at the moment I find myself having to Tweet or write on PB that general elections are not decided by national party vote shares but by first past the post elections in 650 separate constituencies. This has never been the case more so than in what has for decades been regarded as Labour’s most important bastion – Scotland where 59…

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The key target for the Tories – those LAB voters in the marginals who are satisfied with Dave and want him as PM

The key target for the Tories – those LAB voters in the marginals who are satisfied with Dave and want him as PM

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The data in the chart above is from the aggregate 12k sample from the latest batch of Lord Ashcroft CON held LAB facing marginals to be published. I’ve highlighted four key groups who could influence the election in the most important seats of all – CON defences against LAB. The other reason I’ve chosen this polling is the overall sample size which which means that we can look at subsets with greater confidence. Those polled were asked to rate ED…

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