The data in the chart above is from the aggregate 12k sample from the latest batch of Lord Ashcroft CON held LAB facing marginals to be published. I’ve highlighted four key groups who could influence the election in the most important seats of all – CON defences against LAB.
The other reason I’ve chosen this polling is the overall sample size which which means that we can look at subsets with greater confidence.
Those polled were asked to rate ED vs Dave with four options:-
“I am satisfied with the job David Cameron is doing overall as Prime Minister”
“I am dissatisfied with the job that David Cameron is doing overall as Prime Minister – BUT I’d still prefer to have him as Prime Minister than have Ed Miliband as Prime Minister”
“I am dissatisfied with the job that David Cameron is doingoverall as PrimeMinister AND I’d prefer to have Ed Miliband as Prime Minister instead.”
Two things stand out: The fact that 22% of UKIP voters opted for Ed as PM and the quite high proportion of LAB voters who’d prefer Dave to remain at Number 10. The former look beyond the reach of CON campaigners but the latter could be promising provided this is handled right.
The challenge is, of course, is that to the voting questions they said LAB and maybe party loyalty is more important than who is PM. If they were going to switch on leadership grounds wouldn’t they have done so already?