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The states that will decide WH2020 – polling averages from the key battlegrounds

The states that will decide WH2020 – polling averages from the key battlegrounds

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With the election just three weeks away way I thought it might be useful to have the above chart so we can monitor the latest polls in the states that will decide the election. The chart shows simply the average Biden polling lead as recorded in Fivethirtyeight.com. These are the states where almost all of the effort is being put in and where, of course, there are the most active betting markets. The number of state polls is unprecedented and…

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How the polls moved since last week’s first debate and Trump contracting COVID-19

How the polls moved since last week’s first debate and Trump contracting COVID-19

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In terms of the national polls Trump has taken a big hit over the past few days in the aftermath of his much criticised debate performance and his reaction to catching COVID-19. There’s a lot of discussion going on about comparing current polling with what happened at WH2020 when Trump was firs elected. I’d argue that a better comparison is the polling for the 2018 midterms – Trump’s first electoral test. The main thing that characterises that election was the…

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Some frightening polling from America

Some frightening polling from America

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Being a seasoned poll watcher occasionally you see some polling that shocks and disgusts you, for example when in 2017 a poll found 53% of Britons liked pineapple on pizza but this poll from America frightens me on so many levels, in a way no other poll ever has. 33% of of Democrats and 36% of Republicans feel justified in using violence to achieve their political goals, a staggering fourfold increase in just over three years. For a while I’ve…

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Lockdown: Trying to work out what the public will stand for and what it won’t

Lockdown: Trying to work out what the public will stand for and what it won’t

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The above two Tweets set out the debate that is going on about what’s necessary to control the pandemic and what people will put up with. All this, course, against the background of what is happening to the economy. My instinct is to go with Ipsos-MORI boss, Ben Page, who is now one of the elder statesmen of the British polling industry. For me personally the family thing is central and I just long to see my children and their…

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For the first time since July 2019 a pollster has the Tories behind

For the first time since July 2019 a pollster has the Tories behind

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It was going to come sometime that with the PM’s awful ratings collapse we would at some stage see his party fall behind in the voting intention polling. Well that has happened tonight from Opinium. These are the numbers for the main two parties with changes on a fortnight ago. Labour 42% (+3%) Conservative 39% (-3%) Starmer takes 4% lead over Johnson as Best PM with Johnson 32% -3 Starmer 36% +3. Other figures are bad for the blue team…

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Majority of Brits support the ‘Rule of Six’ but few are ready to be “snitchers”

Majority of Brits support the ‘Rule of Six’ but few are ready to be “snitchers”

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A new survey by Ipsos MORI finds 60% of Britons support that the ‘rule of six’, which makes it illegal for more than 6 people to meet, in order to control the spread of coronavirus. Less than 1 in 5 oppose the new rule (17%). However, despite government requests for people to inform the authorities if they see someone breaking the rule, few believe they are likely to do so. Seven in 10 (70%) say it is unlikely that they…

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This week’s most important polling analysis on the White House race

This week’s most important polling analysis on the White House race

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I’m very intrigued by this analysis by the New York Times, as seen in the tweets above, it probably explains the current prices on Betfair where Trump is very close to Biden. There’s always a danger of refighting the last war, as Elliott Morris acknowledges, but in 2012 the RCP nationwide polling average had Obama winning by 0.7% when in reality he ended up winning by 3.9%, if we see that kind of error then Biden’s looking at something close…

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Polling for Trump v Biden is following almost exactly the same pattern as for the 2018 Midterms

Polling for Trump v Biden is following almost exactly the same pattern as for the 2018 Midterms

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If this continues Trump is out One of the striking features of the pattern of current Trump v Biden polling is how much it looks like the main polling for the Midterms in 2018. Just like that for the White House race now the Democratic lead in generic congressional polling followed a pretty constant 7-8% in the polling averages. As it turned out the 2018 surveys undershot the Dem final total by more than one point. The November 2018 Midterms…

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