In terms of the national polls Trump has taken a big hit over the past few days in the aftermath of his much criticised debate performance and his reaction to catching COVID-19.
There’s a lot of discussion going on about comparing current polling with what happened at WH2020 when Trump was firs elected. I’d argue that a better comparison is the polling for the 2018 midterms – Trump’s first electoral test.
The main thing that characterises that election was the huge turnout getting very close to Presidential election levels.. The big driving force according to exit polls was the threat by Trump to take away Obamacare which has provided health coverage for tens of millions of Americans.
That threat is still there and indeed has been heightened by Trump’s pick for the Supreme Court vacancy. Taking away what has for large numbers of Americans has become an entitlement looks set to be a big vote driver again.
One feature of both the national and state polling is a growing gender divide with women, who are more concerned about healthcare, far more hostile to the incumbent than men.