Corbyn’s Labour now have a 12% lead with the upper and middle classes, let that sink in. I think whilst this might be an outlier it is probably a result of Mrs May and her close advisers decision to abdicate from focusing much/any time on the economy during the general election campaign lest Philip Hammond had a good campaign and made it impossible for Mrs May to sack Philip Hammond on June 9th. The Tories must hope whomever succeeds Mrs…
Exclusive: 8 point lead for Labour in first YouGov / Times poll since election..Lab 46Con 38 pic.twitter.com/PFe2ktnY3n — Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) July 6, 2017 Poll analysis: tonight's numbers make an early election both less and more likely — Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) July 6, 2017 ?: Angry Tory junior ministers plot to engineer mass resignation coup in bid to oust "horse with broken leg" PM: https://t.co/MZffj7wqY4 — Harry Cole (@MrHarryCole) July 6, 2017 She must be facing her Leo…
What the recently announced House of Lords Committee on political polling might be looking at. https://t.co/kQ1A1vvxnZ pic.twitter.com/rFF24KpcBZ — TSE (@TSEofPB) July 5, 2017 The House of Lords announced last week they would looking into opinion polls, The Lords say The results of political opinion polls have become an increasingly prominent feature of British politics, caused by parties reacting to changing economic and social trends, the media seeking more frequent measures of parties’ standing, and technological innovation and falling costs in…
Wikipedia Never before has main opposition party had such margins after an election We have now had three voting polls since the general election and all of them, as can be seen in the table above, have shown clear leads for Labour. This is highly unusual and almost unprecedented. Almost always the first polls after a general election see the winner doing better than it did in the voting on the day. Thanks to Mark Pack’s excellent Pollbase place we…
They all understated LAB Mike Smithson AFollow @MSmithsonPB Tweet
The narrative of what drove the shock result in the general election is becoming well established. Those in the younger age segments turned out to vote on a scale that hadn’t been anticipated and they were much more pro LAB than CON. The result was that instead of losing seats to CON Corbyn’s LAB made gains off the Tories, the SNP and the LDs on a scale that alongside a handful of LD gains from CON caused Mrs May to…
Final polling table. Actual GB shares CON 43.5%LAB 41%LD 7.6%SNP 3.1%UKIP 1.9%GRN 1.7% pic.twitter.com/4RZp28vEa2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 10, 2017 The finalisation of the count in Kensington means that we now can compute the final actual voting share percentages for GE17 the ones against which the pollsters should be judged. These are for GB only excluding Northern Ireland. What is very striking is how understated the Labour share was with some huge variations in the wrong direction. Those pollsters…
No one can accuse the pollsters of herding this time With just one firm still to publish, Ipsos-MORI for the Standard, the above Wikipedia list looks like the almost final polling table of 2017. The variation between the firms is simply amazing and unprecedented in any previous general election. One thing is for certain some reputations will be made tonight and some will be trashed. In many ways I admire the bravery of those pollsters who have not felt the…