Why you cannot make comparisons with the run up to 1997 The above is reproduced from Anthony Wells’s excellent UK Polling Report site and shows the polls in the final month before the 1997 general election which Labour won with a margin of 13%. Just compare the above figures with the final shares of CON 31.4%: LAB 44.4%: LD 17.2% I refer back to this because time and time again you will read or hear commentators and politicians say that…
The April monthly survey by Populus for the Times is being published this evening and first indications are that it’s very bad for Gordon. The headline is already up on the Times web-site and reads “Economic confidence falters as Labour plunges”. UPDATE: The shares are now available and show CON 39% (+2): LAB 33%(-1 ): LD 17%(-2) This has not quite lived up to it billing and while a six point margin should put the Tories ahead on seats it…
Peter Kellner admits “error” in the pollster’s weighting system? Last week while I was on holiday in France Adam Boulton’s blog carried a piece suggesting that YouGov’s London samples included too many older voters, who traditionally are more inclined to vote Conservative. He suggested that if the weightings had been in line with official population statistics then Boris would have had a lead of 6% – not the 10% found in the latest survey. So is there something in the…
Is it time to start betting on a Conservative majority? Con 43 (+6), Lab 32 (nc), Lib Dem 18 (-3) A poll by ICM in tomorrow’s Sunday Telegraph gives the Conservatives an 11-point lead, up six since the previous poll in January. The Telegraph notes that such a result could give a 40-seat majority for Cameron under FPTP, but under a putative AV-style system this would be reduced to 325 MPs. On the issue of economic competence, Brown/Darling and Cameron/Osborne…
Con 40 (+1), Lab 35 (-2) Lib Dem 18 (+2) The March Political Monitor out today from Ipsos MORI shows the Conservatives with a 5 point lead in voting intention, ahead of Labour on 35 and the Lib Dems on 18. The Tory lead is thus up three when compared to the February poll. Elsewhere in the poll, net personal ratings were -39 for the government, -31 for Brown, +4 for Cameron, and -7 for Clegg. The quota sample was…
After the YouGov surveys showing Boris with 12% and 10% lead respectively there’s an ICM poll out tonight for the Guardian that suggests the race is much closer. When second preferences are taken into account Boris has a margin of just 2% The first round prediction has Johnson 42%: Livingstone 41%: Paddick 10% What will be particularly pleasing for the Johnson camp is that he is beating Ken on second preferences. The Guardian notes “….Among Liberal Democrats, 43% say they…
Con 38 (-3) Lab 31 (+1) Lib Dem 17 (n/c) A poll out tonight by ComRes for the Independent shows a lead of seven points for the Conservatives, down by four since the previous poll. Fieldwork was 28-30 March and the unweighted base was 1004 respondents. The Tories are down by three on 38 percent, Labour up by one to 31, and the Lib Dems are unchanged on 17 – it remains to be seen what impact Nick Clegg’s interview…
Look at the “Dismayed – Delighted” figures There’s now the full detail from this morning’s YouGov poll and I have extracted the above responses which I find interesting. Thus on the forced choice question Cameron now has a comfortable lead and the Lib Dem supporters questioned are almost neck and neck. The next question “Suppose a Conservative Government were formed under David Cameron which of these three statements would come nearest your own reaction?” provides a note of warning to…