YouGov What does he do now in the face of these numbers? Thanks to Andrew Sparrow in the Guardian for spotting the above numbers in the latest YouGov poll for they seem to blow a big hole in Brown’s core general election strategy – to reduce the argument down to a choice between “Labour investment” and “Tory cuts”. The key premise of the Brown approach is that voters will believe that by curtailing budgets to key services then inevitably those…
CON 34 (+1) LAB 30 (-15) LD 15 (-1) GRN 14 (+11) Is the first poll just in line with expectations? The above ICM poll with variations on what happened at the last election was commissioned by Norwich’s University & College Union and has just been published. The sample was just 500 which means a much higher margin of error must be applied. As can be seen the figures are broadly in line with current national polling and, indeed, it…
CON 38 (-2) LAB 25(+1) LD 18 (nc) But “others” continue to impact on the numbers The Telegraph’s YouGov poll for June is out and shows modest changes on the last survey from the firm a fortnight ago. Labour will be pleased to have clawed back the deficit to what appears a modest 13 points. The Tories will be disappointed to be down in the 30s again while it’s no change for the Lib Dems. The changes are modest and…
This is an interesting chart just issued by MORI showing it’s polling trends since over the past six years. The main thing to note is that the firm’s methodology changed in June 2008 and this might have been the basis of a small part of the Labour decline. Whatever it doesn’t look good this far out from a general election. For those who want more there is a range of polling trend charts here. Mike Smithson
CON 38 (-1) LAB 21 (-4) LD 19 (nc) “Others” continue to have big impact on the shares A new poll from Ipsos-MORI shows Labour sharply down on the last survey from the firm taken the weekend before. The firm itself is quoting changes on a poll before the Euro elections when Labour dropped to 18%. This is a steep drop in just a week but perhaps reflects how the media was covering Labour in the period after the EU…
New data points to 158 Tory gains While many Labour MPs might be celebrating that “their man” won yesterday’s election for the speaker there’s a sharp reminder of the challenge the party faces at the election in a new Harris poll for today’s Metro. The pollster which used to be one of the main firms in the UK has hardly been seen for years. The firm seems to operate online and is a member of the British Polling Council which…
CON 39(+1) LAB 22(nc) LD 18 (-2) But why’s there so much variation in the Labour numbers? All but one of the Westminster polls since the June 4th elections have shown the Tories either on 39% or 40%. Where there’s been a big variation has been with the Labour shares. While all of them now have the party in the 20s and in second place the percentages range from 22% to 27% which is outside the margin of error. The…
CON 39 (-1) LAB 25 (+7) LD 19 (+1) A new poll tonight from Ipsos-MORI has Labour rising above the floor of 18% which was recorded earlier in the month and back into the mid 20s. MORI has a very tight turnout filter and only includes the “100% certains” in its headline figures. This tends to produce quite a lot of turbulence. Another MORI feature is that it weights by whether people work in the public sector or not because…