CON 39 (-1) LAB 25 (+7) LD 19 (+1)
A new poll tonight from Ipsos-MORI has Labour rising above the floor of 18% which was recorded earlier in the month and back into the mid 20s.
MORI has a very tight turnout filter and only includes the “100% certains” in its headline figures. This tends to produce quite a lot of turbulence.
Another MORI feature is that it weights by whether people work in the public sector or not because standard phone polling seems to incorporate a disproportionate number in the samples. The result is that this group, which are much pro-Labour than the norm, have their voting intentions scaled back in order to produce a sample that is representaitve.
The fact that Labour appears to be doing better now the Euro campaign is over could be highlighting a potential problem. For during the run-up to June 4th the broadcasters operated their standard national election campaign rules which allocated balanced coverage to all the parties according to a complex formula.
Thus Labour was less able to dominate the media. Now the campaign is over the rules no longer apply and Labour does better. But campaign chiefs will only be too aware such a regime will come into force again next during the general election.
So really the polling is getting back to where it was before the Euros.