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Category: Polls

Is Labour going to close the gap?

Is Labour going to close the gap?

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PaddyPower What’ll be their best polling position next month? The innovative Irish bookmaker, PaddyPower , has just introduced a new market on what’s going to happen to the opinion polls in November. A range of prices, see above, has been drawn up linked to the best Labour position in voting intention surveys from Populus, YouGov, ComRes, Ipsos-Mori and ICM during November 2009. This applies to the final date of fieldwork and will be settled according to the UKPollingReport list. I…

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Two betting markets that are coming to fruition

Two betting markets that are coming to fruition

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Will Brown’s ratings go up or down? The Irish bookmaker, PaddyPower is now offering a monthly market on which way Brown’s YouGov approvals ratings are going to move. This is based on the monthly Sunday Times YouGov survey, the next one of which should come this weekend. Previous results can be seen here and looking at what’s happened in the past four months I think that PaddyPower price of 5/4 on it being in the 20-30% range looks great value….

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Why is the north seeing the biggest changes?

Why is the north seeing the biggest changes?

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Are the big moves in target-rich regions? Whenever the full dataset from a new poll comes out there’s usually a discussion on the site of the regional breakdowns. The problem, of course, is that each sub-set is not subject to the overall weighting calculations and sample sizes are small. In the chart above we see something different – the aggregated MORI polling data for the first nine months of 2009 compared with what happened at the general election in May…

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Why have more women turned to the Tories than men?

Why have more women turned to the Tories than men?

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What’s behind the gender voting changes? The above chart was prepared by Ben Page, CEO of Ipsos-MORI, and shows the changes on the 2005 general elections broken down by social class and gender. Ben has aggregated all the MORI polling data for the first nine months of 2009 and compares it with what happened at the general election in May 2005. The overall increase in the Tory share is 8 points but notice the big difference between men an women….

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The Tory ICM lead moves to 19 points

The Tory ICM lead moves to 19 points

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CON 45 (+5) LAB 26 (nc) LD 18 (-5) At last a survey where certainty to vote is key! We have been so overwhelmed by YouGov and YouGov-related surveys (PoliticHome and BPIX) that it comes as something of as relief to get some numbers from one of the leading phone pollsters with a track record going back decades. A key element with ICM is weighting by certainty to vote – something which YouGov doesn’t do and which I believe is…

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Some polling data for top politics don Anthony King

Some polling data for top politics don Anthony King

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How do these numbers fit with your article Professor? My apologies for returning to this subject but I feel I ought to raise yet again the issue of Blair’s 1996/97 polls ratings which are referred to in a commentary on the Mail BPIX poll by Anthony King, professor of government at Essex University. writes:- “…However, the findings still indicate that the road ahead for the Tories may be rocky. Not only is the Conservatives’ lead over Labour not nearly as…

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Is now the time to back the Lib Dems?

Is now the time to back the Lib Dems?

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Will they repeat their conference bounce come the election? Conference season 2009 is over and with YouGov having helpfully provided their tracker poll for Sky almost daily, now’s a good time to look back to see what lessons can be drawn for the coming months. The most obvious effect was that each of the parties gained a boost in their share during and immediately after their conference. That’s perhaps to be expected as each was able to control much of…

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