How do these numbers fit with your article Professor?
My apologies for returning to this subject but I feel I ought to raise yet again the issue of Blair’s 1996/97 polls ratings which are referred to in a commentary on the Mail BPIX poll by Anthony King, professor of government at Essex University. writes:-
“…However, the findings still indicate that the road ahead for the Tories may be rocky. Not only is the Conservativesâ€™ lead over Labour not nearly as large as Labourâ€™s was over the Tories in 1997, but the Tories â€“ despite Mr Cameronâ€™s best efforts â€“ are to a large extent still seen as a party apart…”
This is one of those “facts” that simply won’t go away.
King should know that the ONLY comparable polling data from this period is that from ICM and that the four latest surveys from the firm have reported leads of 14, 17, 16 and 17 percent. The other pollsters from the 1997 election have either stopped UK political polling or else made radical changes to their methodologies.
Certainly Blair’s Labour was getting higher ratings but just compare, John Major’s Tories in the same period in before the 1997 election. They never dropped out of the thirties. Since
the Damian McBride smearing email affair was brought to light on April 11 2009 April Gordon Brown’s Labour has never been out of the twenties with ICM.
Respectfully I suggest that the statement “the Conservativesâ€™ lead over Labour not nearly as large as Labourâ€™s was over the Tories in 1997” does not stand up. The respective leads were in the same broad area.