The Tory ICM lead moves to 19 points

The Tory ICM lead moves to 19 points

CON 45 (+5) LAB 26 (nc) LD 18 (-5)

At last a survey where certainty to vote is key!

We have been so overwhelmed by YouGov and YouGov-related surveys (PoliticHome and BPIX) that it comes as something of as relief to get some numbers from one of the leading phone pollsters with a track record going back decades.

A key element with ICM is weighting by certainty to vote – something which YouGov doesn’t do and which I believe is driving a lot of the Labour movements at the moment.

The Tory 45% share equals the best ever total from the firm and the 19 point margin is the second highest. Much of the change on the last ICM poll, taken immediately after the Lib Dem conference, is down to a decline in Clegg’s party’s share.

All we are seeing here, though, is the standard conference polling effect with the party that’s been on most recently getting a boost. As I say every time new numbers come out – we need to wait until the conference effect has worked its way through the system before coming to hard conclusions.

Even so for the conference season to finish with polls showing deficits like this will only add to the collapse in morale of the Labour activist base. It’s hard to see just how the party can stage a recovery without some radical changes at the top – something for which the movement doesn’t appear to have the stomach.

Mike Smithson

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