CON 40%(40) LAB 31%(27) LD 16%(18) OTHERS 13% (15) So which pollsters do you believe? After the ComRes 17 point Tory lead reported in the previous thread there are two further surveys – a YouGov one featured above for the Sunday Times and a YouGov/BPIX poll for the Mail on Sunday. The latter has C41-L30-LD17. It’s a while since we’ve had anything from YouGov/BPIX. The one consistent theme from the last four polls has been that the Tories are back…
Making more sense of the rise of the “others” We had an interesting additional voting intention question in the latest PB/Angus Reid poll which might help us further in trying to work out what will happen to the UKIP/BNP/GREEN vote as we get closer to the election. For a big issue, of course, is that there is not going to be a full slate of candidates in every seat and many of those electors currently telling pollsters that they’ll vote…
Politicalbetting.com – Thursday evening after the 2008 budget Is instant polling reaction a guide to anything? Every Friday after budgets, and now the PBR, the Times publishes the findings of a quickie small sample non-voting intention Populus poll and invariably this is good for the government. But how seriously should we take it? Shouldn’t we look at the record. I raised this one last March and I raise it again. The above is from the post published here about a…
Angus Reid Strategies Should all pollsters get their data out on the same day? Here is the main set of cross-tabs with the regional and gender splits from this evening’s Politicalbetting/Angus Reid poll which is showing almost no change in the overall picture. Download the full set for yourself here. One of the things I was very keen on when we were setting up the arrangement with the pollster was that the full data-set should be made available as soon…
CON 40%(39) LAB 23%(22) LD 19%(21) OTHERS 18% (18) Has Labour been hurt by the PBR? In the first national voting intention poll to be published after Mr.Darling’s PBR statement both Labour and the Tories move up but the Lib Dem drop down. Fieldwork started on Tuesday and carried on until a few hours ago with just under a third of responses coming in after the Chancellor’s statement. So of the last four national voting intention polls to come out…
CON 38%(39) LAB 30%(29) LD 20%(18) OTHERS % 11(14) This really is hung parliament territory As predicted in the previous thread this evening Populus poll for the Times has some good news for Brown Central following the party’s relatively good week – even though it is all well within the margin of error This is the closest the parties have been with the firm for exactly a year. In December 2008 the pollster reported a 4 point margin. There’s little…
Could another firm have the lead down to single figures? I’ve had it confirmed that the Populus December survey for the Times did take place over the weekend and if things are following their normal pattern we should find out about it tonight. This will be the first public poll to have been carried out wholly after Mr. Brown’s PMQ performance last Wednesday – an event that has reverberated throughout the Westminster village and is helping shape the media narrative….
YouGov for Channel 4 June 2009 Can Labour really expect to benefit most? The above is from the massive 32,268 sample YouGov poll taken just before the Euro Election last June and is just about the best resource we’ve got on the attitudes and backgrounds of those who, in that election at least, supported the “others” – the BNP, UKIP or the Greens. For given the continued very high shares that are being recorded for this segment this survey might…