Will ICM and Populus be going with the flow? One of the difficulties looking at current polling is that YouGov are doing so many surveys that they almost drown out everybody else – and we have not heard for some time from the two firms, ICM and Populus, which will be going into this election using the same broad methodology as in 2005. All the other firms doing monthly surveys – YouGov, ComRes, Angus Reid and Ipsos-MORI – are either…
What’ll be the consequences in the marginals? Did I miss the glaringly obvious when I wrote that I did not know what had caused the 3% boost for the Lib Dems in the overnight YouGov daily poll for the Sun? For the reason was plain to see as Mike L commented on the previous thread: “Last night’s news was dominated by the announcement of the Leader Debates – Clegg was side by side on split screen with Brown and Cameron…
CON 38% (38) LAB 32% (33) LD 19%(16) And the Lib Dems move up three Apart from that blip at the weekend when the Tory lead slipped to just two points the daily poll has had pretty stable figures and tonight’s numbers are no exception. The Tories stable, Labour down one and the Lib Dems up three. Given that the big political story has continued to be Lord Aschroft’s tax affairs then the Tories will be a tad relieved that…
Reproduced from the London Evening Standard CON 39% (32) LAB 35% (39) LD 17%(22) YouGov finds a bigger Tory swing in London A new YouGov poll for tonight’s London Evening Standard suggests that the Tories might be on target to make a dozen gains in the capital at the election. The shares are above with the changes since the 2005 general election. The swing of 5.5% is higher than that we’ve seen in national YouGov polls taken over the past…
CON 38% (39) LAB 33% (32) LD 16%(17) But it’s all within the margin of error With the TV bulletins throughout yesterday dominated by the Michael Ashcroft admission about his non-dom tax-status you might have thought that the Tories could have taken a bigger hit than they did in tonight’s YouGov daily poll for the Sun. For fieldwork began at 5pm yesterday evening and continued until five hours ago. Apart from that there’s not much else to note – the…
Should you be betting against a hung parliament? Several of the front pages highlight the reaction on the currency markets to the suggestions that the coming election might produce an inconclusive outcome. With the nation voting in the most difficult financial circumstances the idea that Britain’s plight could be made worse if no party gets an overall majority seems like a pretty potent message to me. Just imagine the reaction if it dominated the closing days of the campaign. This…
CON 39% (37) LAB 32% (35) LD 17%(17) Is it down to positive media coverage This morning I suggested that this might be the day to start buying the Tories again simply because they were back in the news after a period when issues involving Labour and Mr. Brown were dominating everything. My view was that there seems to be an element in polls of up to 4% which appeared to be directly related to who had been most on…
CON 37% (39) LAB 35% (33) LD 17%(16) Gordon could still get his five more years According to the News of the World the latest daily poll from YouGov has the above figures which would probably mean that Labour would end up with most seats. This has now been confirmed by the Sunday Times itself – story here. This is a fantastic poll for Labour who, almost unbelievably, are now only per percent down on what they were at the…