The gap closes a bit in the first post-Ashcroft poll

The gap closes a bit in the first post-Ashcroft poll

CON 38% (39)
LAB 33% (32)
LD 16%(17)

But it’s all within the margin of error

With the TV bulletins throughout yesterday dominated by the Michael Ashcroft admission about his non-dom tax-status you might have thought that the Tories could have taken a bigger hit than they did in tonight’s YouGov daily poll for the Sun. For fieldwork began at 5pm yesterday evening and continued until five hours ago.

Apart from that there’s not much else to note – the gap is still very close and inevitably poll watchers are going to be looking at every minute detail in this and all surveys at the moment.

We had YouGov boss Peter Kellner doing a live Q&A earlier and it was a pity that he didn’t have the time to go into the weightings points that have been raised by Flockers and others.

Interestingly the detailed data from last night’s poll shows that the pollster didn’t have to scale up the “Labour Loyal” segment of its sample on anything like the scale as Sunday Times survey the day before – the one with the two point Tory lead.

Could it be, I wonder, that Labour does better with YouGov when fewer classified as “Labour loyal” take part? Then, of course, the responses of those that did are scaled up.

This is one we are going to have to watch.

Mike Smithson

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