Rod Crosby on the impact of Brown’s decision to take part After working hard in the run-up to the election I took a break for a while, and have really only just begun the post-mortem on my predictions and the actual result. One thing that caught my eye is this graph. For those who don’t recall, I promoted the Kalman Filter as the best way of “averaging” the polls, and as far as the critical Tory lead was concerned it…
YouGov London ALL voters CON GE LAB GE LD GE General election CON 38 100 0 0 General election LAB 42 0 100 0 General election LD 13 0 0 100 1st choice BORIS 46 85 12 38 1st choice KEN 44 10 78 38 1st choice LD 4 2 2 23 BORIS forced choice 46 84 17 42 KEN forced choice 41 12 76 45 Could Ken close the gap? May 2012 seems an awful long time off but…
Polling ranges Oct 8 – 16 High Low CONSERVATIVES 43 (YouGov) 38 (ICM) LABOUR 40 (YouGov) 34 (ICM & ComRes) LIB DEMS 18 (ICM) 11 (YouGov) Why the difference between the pollsters? As we start this critical political week it is extraordinarily hard to come to any real conclusions about where opinion stands from the polling. Just look at the ranges that we’ve seen since last weekend and the different pictures that the three polling organisations – ICM, YouGov and…
Poll Date CON LAB LD YouGov/Sun 29/09/10 41 39 12 YouGov/Sun 28/09/10 41 40 12 YouGov/Sun 27/09/10 39 40 12 YouGov/Sunday Times 24/09/10 39 38 15 YouGov/Sun 23/09/10 41 37 13 YouGov/Sun 22/09/10 43 36 14 YouGov/Sun 21/09/10 39 39 13 YouGov/Sun 20/09/10 42 38 11 YouGov/Sunday Times 17/09/10 41 39 13 YouGov/Sun 16/09/10 41 38 12 YouGov/Sun 15/09/10 42 39 12 YouGov/Sun 14/09/10 40 39 12 YouGov/Sun 13/09/10 41 38 12 YouGov/Sunday Times 10/09/10 42 38 14 YouGov/Sun 09/09/10…
Autumn 2007 polling Date CON LAB LD YouGov/Sunday Times 16/11/07 41 35 13 YouGov/Telegraph 24/10/07 41 38 11 YouGov/Sunday Times 06/10/07 41 38 11 YouGov/Channel 4 04/10/07 36 40 13 YouGov/Telegraph 28/09/07 32 43 15 YouGov/Channel 4 25/09/07 33 44 13 Will they be at 40+ when he makes his 1st speech? Last night the News International daily poll from YouGov had CON 39%: LAB 38%: LD 15% – so the red team was just one point adrift. The big…
Why are punters ignoring the polling? The great mystery of the 2010 Labour leadership race has been that David Miliband has continued to be an odds-on favourite even though the only members’ and trade unionists’ polling since voting began showed that he was losing in these two segments of the electoral college. True the ex-foreign secretary has drifted from 1.2 on Betfair since the publication of the Sunday Times poll eleven days ago but he’s still the heavy odds-on favourite….
Why do so many EdM voters think DM would be better? The uber-uber Tony Blair and now David Miliband loyalist, John Rentoul blogged overnight about some YouGov polling figures which are driving him to despair. For Rentoul, of the Independent of Sunday, is disturbed that the polling suggests that his man won’t make it in the Labour election although a large chunk of those voting Ed Miliband think that DavidM is more likely to lead his party to victory at…
Election/Poll TORIES LABOUR LIBERAL Tories come to power 1951 48 48.8 2.5 Gallup after 6 months 41 48 9 Tories come to power 1970 46.4 43 7.5 Gallup after 6 months 42 47 8 Tories come to power 1979 43.9 36.9 13.8 Gallup after 6 months 39 43 15 Coalition comes to power 2010 37 29.7 23.6 MORI after five months 37 37 15 Is too much being read into the latest polls? Thanks to Professor Phil Cowley of Nottingham…