But which one will be most accurate? There another London mayoral poll out, an online survey from Opinium – the online firm which never seems to want to communicate with me. (Hi guys could you put me on your email list?). It has Boris 43%/Ken 37%/Paddick 7%/Jones 6%/Benita 3%/ UKIP 3%. Opinium’s figures for the top two are pretty close to YouGov and the overall picture from five different firms is that Boris will be staying at City Hall. In…
Could he just squeeze in? The latest YouGov London poll for the Evening Standard is just out and has Boris only 3% ahead on first preferences. That margin is what the US media would call a “statistical dead heat”. Clearly, if YouGov have got this right, this battle is far closer than the other pollsters who’ve been covering it are making out. Before the weekend ComRes had a Boris 1st preference lead of 9% with Survation recording 11.2%. Hopefully they’ll…
Could the reds win more than the initial 700 seat projection? There’s a new Survation poll out in the Daily Mirror which has both Westminster and local election voting intention for this Thursday. The national numbers are CON 30% nc/LAB 37%+2/LD 13%+2/UKIP 9%-1 with comparisons on the firm’s poll a fortnight ago for the Mail on Sunday. For the locals Survation has with comparisons on the 2008 national equivalent votes shares when most of these sears were last fought CON…
Why the difference with the telephone pollsters? The big polling story this wekk, apart from the London mayoral race, has been the very high UKIP shares that have been reported. To track it I put have together the above chart showing the latest UKIP shares across the range of pollsters. The difference is very clear – the online firms appear to have much bigger numbers. As can been seen the latest surveys from all the telephone polls have UKIP at…
Google, Apple, Facebook, Twitter . . . twitter.com/pollreport/sta… — PollingReport.com (@pollreport) April 8, 2012 A slightly different poll for Easter Monday A very common form of questioning in US polling which we hardly see in the UK is the favourable/unfavourable format. This has become the standard for candidate ratings and here the ABC/Washington Post survey applies it to high-tech companies. That Google has a slight edge over Apple is interesting – I’d have guessed the other way round particularly following…
And the LDs drop to a new low in a phone poll With the YouGov daily poll, however, Labour’s lead drops to 3 points tonight. It has CON 37%: LAB 40%: LD 9%.
After the Slovak “No”, Mark Gill looks at polling on Europe There are many reasons explaining why European nations have different views on whether their country benefits from EU membership. History, political culture, geography and media all play an important part. Yet, the extent to which a nation is a net contributor of EU funds does not seem to have that much influence. True, the UK is one of the largest net contributors to EU coffers (even taking account of…
Surely the party of the Two Eds should be miles ahead? Something curious is happening in British politics. The economy is weak, unemployment is running at 2.5m, and significant, and unpopular, cuts in public spending are being pushed through. In such a situation, one would expect the Opposition to have opened up a big lead in opinion polls, and to make sweeping gains in local elections. In the run up to the last election, plenty of commentators expected the new…