How vulnerable are Lansley, Hunt, May and Osborne? For me one of the big polling events of the month is the Populus telephone survey for the Times which came out overnight. The headline voting figures were LAB 40 (-1): CON 34 (+1): LD 12 (+3) so quite a boost for the Lib Dems after a difficult week. No separate UKIP share has been released yet. An interesting aspect in view of the impending re-shuffle, was a brutal question on which…
Are the Tories mis-reading the threat from Farage? I’ve just come across some intriguing polling that was tucked away in a post on the Coffee House website last month by the Speccie’s James Forsyth, In it he reported on a series of “calm the nerves” briefing sessions that are being held at Number 10 for groups of a dozen or so Tory back-benchers. Part of this is a presentation by the ex-Populus boss who is now Number 10’s strategy director,…
And also the ComRes TRUTH LEAGUE A second phone poll in a week has good news for the Lib Dems. Last Tuesday ICM had Clegg’s party up 3 to 14%. Tonight ComRes has them up 4 to 14% – a level they last touched in February. This follows yesterday’s ICM Wisdom poll where respondents are asked to guess the general election shares for the main parties. This had 32/39/17. Also from ComRes there is an online poll for ITV news…
Plus some other points from the polls Labour lead by 7 in SunTel/ICM ‘Wisdom Index’ poll Lab 38 (-1), Con 31 (-) LD 17 (+1) Voters asked to predict gen elex result — Patrick Hennessy (@PatJHennessy) July 1, 2012 @Joga5 In its final unpublished 2010 general election poll ICM says its Wisdom Index was more accurate than any of the pollsters — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 1, 2012 @MSmithsonPB ICM/Guardian pre-adjusted [Table 2] (vs wisdom) – Lib 12 (-5), Lab…
Do Dave & George simply look like push-overs? There’s a good piece by Speccie editor, Fraser Nelson, in the Telegraph on the corrosive impact that successive U-turns are having on the government. “..It sometimes feels as if Mr Cameron and Mr Osborne do not regard themselves as being in power, but instead believe they are trapped – by the opinion polls, by the Liberal Democrats, by the Civil Service, by the bond markets, or by all four. Downing Street insiders…
Ipsos-MORI There’s a new Ipsos-MORI poll of voting intentions for the Scottish parliament and these show the same trends that we saw in the Scottish local elections on May 3rd. Scottish Labour moving up with the SNP moving down. A big loser since the last poll at the start of the year has been the Scottish Lib Dems. The shares, in common with MORI’s current practice are based on those certain to vote: SNP 45:LAB 32: CON 12: LD 6….
Would Labour still be in power if they’d stuck with Tony? Exactly five years ago today, June 27th 2007, was a pivotal point in British politics. It was the moment when the triple general election winner Tony Blair stood down and when Gordon Brown took over after Labour MPs had given him the job without a contest. Blair, of course, was one of only three leaders in Labour’s entire history to lead the party to overall majorities The clip featured…
Labour maintains its 5% lead from last month. Conservatives 34% (-2%) Labour 39% (-2%) Lib Dems 14% (+3%) The Lib Dems will be very relieved to move away from their fifteen year low with ICM that they achieved last month. Before the adjustment for those who refused to say who they will vote for, the Labour lead would be 10%, which is in line with other pollsters, Â but as the Guardian notes Past experience has demonstrated that this…