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Category: London and local elections

Why I think you should be laying the 1/8 favourite for Barnet Council

Why I think you should be laying the 1/8 favourite for Barnet Council

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Are Labour’s hopes to take Barnet going to get trimmed? London was horrific for the Tories in last year’s general election, seats like Tooting which were a Tory target saw Labour win with a majority of over fifteen thousand. In Battersea, where there was a near eight thousand Tory majority became a Labour gain. Overall there was a Tory to Labour swing of 6.3% in London, which was three times the 2.1% swing in Great Britain as a whole. With…

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TMay in third place as “best PM” in latest YouGov London poll

TMay in third place as “best PM” in latest YouGov London poll

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Best PM? NOTA 36% Corbyn 31% May 24% Cable 9% London Local elections voting CON 28 LAB 54 LD 11 London GE voting intenton LAB 53% CON 33% LD 8% With the votes in London at the May local elections likely to dominate coverage a new YouGov poll QMUL has bad news for the Conservatives. The numbers in the local elections voting suggests that the Conservatives could be facing the loss of several key Boroughs to LAB and having tough…

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London Local Elections 2018 : By-Elections Review and Forecast

London Local Elections 2018 : By-Elections Review and Forecast

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Harry Hayfield looks at the capital’s by-election and has a forecast Since the local elections in 2014 in London, there have been a total of 75 by-elections to the 32 councils in the capital and overall those by-elections have shown that the mainstream parties are clawing back support from the smaller parties. And yet, despite this there has been very little actual change with only six seats changing hands, those seats being: Stepney Green on Tower Hamlets (Lab GAIN from…

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Labour holding up better in London where there are fewer UKIP voters for CON to squeeze

Labour holding up better in London where there are fewer UKIP voters for CON to squeeze

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YouGov: LAB vote holding up in London poll. LDs up 6. (Changes on GE2015)LAB 42% -2CON 36% +2LD 14% +6UKIP 6%-2GRN 3% -2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 10, 2017 LDs hoping for gains in the capital There’s a new London poll from YouGov out in the Evening Standard which tells the story of GE2017 in a very different way from what we’d been getting used to. The big national voter movement, as has been widely observed, has been from…

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The country’s leading psephologists bring more bad news for Corbyn

The country’s leading psephologists bring more bad news for Corbyn

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Rallings & Thrasher predict in May's locals the Tories will gain 50 seats, Lib Dems gain 100 seats, Labour to lose 50, and UKIP to lose 100 pic.twitter.com/5mcIRDmBxr — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 2, 2017 Full Rallings & Thrasher forecast NESV compared with 4 years ago is Con 31% (+5), Lab 29% (nc), LD 22% (+9) UKIP 10% (-12). — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 2, 2017 Rallings & Thrasher predict Tories will gain seats for UKIP but the Tories could also lose…

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My 100/1 tip to win the 2020 London Mayoral election

My 100/1 tip to win the 2020 London Mayoral election

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Embed from Getty Images My betting tip if Sadiq Khan is hors de combat from the next Mayoral race. Assuming the unelected PM doesn’t change her mind, the next general election will be on the same day as the London Mayoral election, Sadiq Khan has a choice to make, will he stand as London Mayor in 2020 or will he stand as an MP in 2020? I know some say Sadiq Khan would be better of waiting until 2025 to…

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YouGov London poll boost sees even UKIP & CON voters warming to Sadiq Khan

YouGov London poll boost sees even UKIP & CON voters warming to Sadiq Khan

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What is it about the London Mayoralty that gives incumbents good ratings? When Boris Johnson was Mayor of London he always manage to secure better poll ratings than just about any of his Tory colleagues. For almost his entire 8 years at City Hall his leadership ratings remained positive and so it has been so far with Sadiq Khan who was elected in May. Before Boris the Mayoralty was held by Ken who, certainly for the first few years, achieved…

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We mustn’t let the focus on Scotland and London over-shadow the poor CON performance in the English locals

We mustn’t let the focus on Scotland and London over-shadow the poor CON performance in the English locals

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Prof Rallings last month with the local elections projections. CON & UKIP underperformed LAB & LDs did bettet pic.twitter.com/PbNlCDxanc — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 8, 2016 This is more up date. Latest local elections tally from BBC News. The Tories had been predicted to win 150 pic.twitter.com/PIkjUiYHf5 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 8, 2016 And the LDs are making progrsss The narrative on election night tends to be set by what happens overnight Thurs/Fri and little attention has been paid…

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