We mustn’t let the focus on Scotland and London over-shadow the poor CON performance in the English locals
Prof Rallings last month with the local elections projections. CON & UKIP underperformed LAB & LDs did bettet pic.twitter.com/PbNlCDxanc
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 8, 2016
This is more up date. Latest local elections tally from BBC News. The Tories had been predicted to win 150 pic.twitter.com/PIkjUiYHf5
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 8, 2016
And the LDs are making progrsss
The narrative on election night tends to be set by what happens overnight Thurs/Fri and little attention has been paid to the outcomes in the English local council elections where the Tories, as can be seen, came well below expectations.
At the top is the picture I took last month of the Colin Rallings showing the projections he made with Michael Thrasher based on their by-election model.
For the Tories to have losses at a time when they are facing a LAB party led by Corbyn undercuts what many in the blue team have been saying about the new LAB leader.
As well as the local councils the Tories suffered losses on the London assembly as well losing the mayoralty.
The Lib Dems are delighted with the progress. Their 370 seats is six times that achieved by UKIP and not far from half the Tory total.
Labour losses were not on the scale projected.