Harry Hayfield looks at the capital’s by-election and has a forecast

Since the local elections in 2014 in London, there have been a total of 75 by-elections to the 32 councils in the capital and overall those by-elections have shown that the mainstream parties are clawing back support from the smaller parties.

And yet, despite this there has been very little actual change with only six seats changing hands, those seats being:

Stepney Green on Tower Hamlets (Lab GAIN from Ind), Hampton Wick on Richmond upon Thames (Lib Dem GAIN from Con), Heaton on Havering (Lab GAIN from UKIP), Roding on Redbridge (Lab GAIN from Con), Eltham North on Greenwich (Con GAIN from Lab) and Kenton East on Harrow (Con GAIN from Lab)

Therefore based on that you could say “Ah, there is a small swing from Lab to Con, Con to Lib Dem and Lab to Lib Dem, therefore Labour will have a poor set of results in Inner London with the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats gaining, but a very good set of results in areas where the smaller parties did well”, however those changes mask a multitude of swings (some of which are very interesting indeed)

Barking and Dagenham: No by-elections held, Likely Lab HOLD
Barnet: 3% swing from Lab to Con, Likely Con HOLD
Bexley: 5% swing from Con to Lab, Likely Con HOLD
Brent: No swing, Likely Lab HOLD
Bromley: No by-elections held, Likely Con HOLD
Camden: 2% swing from Con to Lab, Likely Lab HOLD
Croydon: 5% swing from Con to Lab, Likely Lab HOLD
Ealing: No by-elections held, Likely Lab HOLD
Enfield: 3.5% swing from Con to Lab, Likely Lab HOLD
Greenwich: 3.5% swing from Lab to Con, Likely Lab HOLD
Hackney: 7.5% swing from Green to Lab, Likely Lab HOLD
Hammersmith and Fulham: No by-elections held, Likely Lab HOLD
Haringey: 0.5% swing from Lib Dem to Lab, Likely Lab HOLD
Harrow: 1.5% swing from Lab to Con, Too close to call between Lab LOSS to NOC and Lab HOLD
Havering: No by-elections held, Too close to call between Con GAIN from NOC to NOC (No Change)
Hillingdon: 2% swing from Lab to Con, Likely Con HOLD
Hounslow: 2% swing from Lab to Con, Likely Lab HOLD
Islington: 4% swing from Lab to Lib Dem, Likely Lab HOLD
Kensington and Chelsea: 1% swing from Lab to Con
The by-elections held in Kensington and Chelsea were both before the Grenfell Tower disaster, so whilst the by-elections are suggesting a likely Con HOLD, I believe it is far more likely to be a Con LOSS to NOC but this is dependent on whether the Liberal Democrats stand in the elections or not and whether Labour stand down in favour of any local independents standing on a fire prevention ticket
Kingston upon Thames: 2% swing from Con to Lib Dem, Too close to call between Con LOSS to NOC to Lib Dem GAIN from Con
Lambeth: 9% swing from Lab to Green, Likely Lab HOLD
Lewisham: 0.5% swing from Lab to Con, Likely Lab HOLD
Merton: 4% swing from Con to Lab, Likely Lab HOLD
Newham: No swing, Likely Lab HOLD
Redbridge: 7.5% swing from Con to Lab, Likely Lab HOLD
Richmond upon Thames: 18% swing from Con to Lib Dem, Likely Lib Dem GAIN from Con
Southwark: 0.5% swing from Lab to Lib Dem, Likely Lab HOLD
Sutton: 3.5% swing from Lib Dem to Con, Likely Lib Dem HOLD
Tower Hamlets: 4% swing from Ind to Lab, Likely Lab GAIN from NOC
Waltham Forest: 4.5% swing from Green to Lab, Likely Lab HOLD
Wandsworth: 4.5% swing from Con to Lab, Likely Con HOLD
Westminster: 2% swing from Con to Lab, Likely Con HOLD