Morus wonders what would happen if… Imagine that the polls narrow just a little more over the course of a blood-spattered, mud-flinging General Election campaign of only 17 working days that leaves no time for clarity and perspective. Imagine that quirks of turnout and minor party support combine with a decent Lib Dem showing to befuddle the best laid plans of Mice and Men. Imagine that the Conservatives, in spite of winning the largest percentage of the vote, are not…
Has he “launched” his bid too early? There’s a story running on the Daily Mail site suggesting that Miliband (D) has started a nationwide tour as part of an effort to drum up support ahead of the leadership contest that is expected after the general election. An email has gone out to party activists saying that Miliband is holding number of public meetings across the country to answer questions on a wide range of issues, including, and not just restricted…
Was Brown right to take part in this interview? If the objective of the Piers Morgan interview has been to dominate the political news and block everybody else out of the agenda then Gordon Brown’s now infamous session, due to be broadcast on Sunday, has certainly done that. And given that getting blanket coverage on the telly, as we see during the conference season, leads to short-term poll boosts then we should expect Labour increases in the coming few days….
The Labour backers continue to stay away Surprisingly, given, the latest ICM poll, the PB Index has seen a four seat upwards movement of the projected Tory majority. This has been mostly driven by changes in the latest prices from Sporting Index which now have CON 342 – 347: LAB 218 – 223: LD 53 -56 seats. The Extrabet market does not seem to operate at the weekend The Betfair line markets is virtually unchanged. So the roller-coaster February on…
Has a PM Dave most to fear from the Gord-Ed duo? For me the big news of the week was the report that Brown would not step aside from the leadership even if, as expected, Labour loses the election. For everything we know about Brown is that he loves power and he is not going to give up easily the job he strove after for so long – even though, after May, the chances of him remaining at Number 10…
What’s this going to do in individual key seats? So here we are – what many MPs are hoping will be the low point for them in the whole expenses saga – the publication today of the Legg Report. Until we see the actual document we won’t get the full scale of what he’s concluded but it seems that up to half of all MPs will be ordered to pay back between them about £1m and that Sir Thomas himself…
Ipsos-MORI Is it really so different in the marginals? I’m just catching up with the Ipsos-MORI aggregate data for all its 2009 polls which have been highlighted by Anthony Wells at UKPR who is suggesting it provides further evidence that opinion is moving differently in the LAB>CON marginals. For what MORI has done is not only to show the aggregate data but to identify the shares by seat category with a particular emphasis on the marginals – something that is…
…and 60% say Brown should share responsibility More information has just been published from the weekend ComRes poll and it doesn’t make comfortable reading for either Blair and his successor. A majority believes that Gordon Brown should share the blame while almost almost four in 10 people believe that Blair should face a war crimes trial over the 2003 invasion. The findings are a setback for Brown, who will give evidence to the Chilcot inquiry into the war in the…