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Even if the Tories clawed back all of their 2010 voters who’ve switched to LAB the most they’d put on is less than 2pc

Even if the Tories clawed back all of their 2010 voters who’ve switched to LAB the most they’d put on is less than 2pc

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Why the potential for swingback is so limited There’s a new Populus online poll out – the third in just eight days – and all the fieldwork took place over the weekend. The figures with changes on Friday’s poll are LAB 39 (↔); CON 32 (↑1); LD 12 (↔); UKIP 9 (↓1). What’s extraordinary about GE2015 voting intention polling is how little crossover there has been between the two main parties since GE2010. Just look at the chart above showing…

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Unite has grown too big for its own good

Unite has grown too big for its own good

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And it’s grown too big for Labour’s too The extraordinary row that has blown up over the selection for Labour’s nomination in Falkirk at the next General Election is a natural and inevitable consequence of the empire building within the union sector. There is nothing inherently wrong with unions seeking to influence Labour party selections. After all, the Labour Party was set up as a creature of the unions in the first place and Len McCluskey does have a valid…

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Henry G Manson says that party selections rarely leave clean hands

Henry G Manson says that party selections rarely leave clean hands

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Even Maggie received “help” to get Finchley Bismarck said “laws are like sausages, it is better not to see them being made.” The same could certainly be said of parliamentary selections. The scrutiny of Labour’s Falkirk selection has generated a good deal of recent media coverage and much of this can be put down to the fascination of Unite, the largest trade union in the country. It suits Conservative strategists and even some in the Labour Party to paint a…

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The Tory YouGov mini-surge seems to be over

The Tory YouGov mini-surge seems to be over

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The LAB lead setting down to pre-spending review levels Almost no change in today's YouGov Sun poll CON 32 LAB 40 LD 9 UKIP 13 For the 3rd consecutive day the LDs in single figures — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 4, 2013 Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news Follow @MSmithsonPB

Who would take over as Labour Leader if Ed fell short?

Who would take over as Labour Leader if Ed fell short?

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  I expect Labour to win most seats at the next general election and for Ed Miliband to be Prime Minister. The bookies make it the most likely event but not a certainty. They price it as a 1/2 shot that Labour will return the most MPs at the next election and 4/6 that Ed Miliband makes it to 10 Downing Street. This is not a universal view by any stretch of the imagination. So what happens if Labour falls…

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The chink in LAB’s armour in South Shields – it has never had to try hard there in the past

The chink in LAB’s armour in South Shields – it has never had to try hard there in the past

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Labour’s candidate in South Shields, Emma Lewell-Buck sets out her “pledges”. goo.gl/77tx8 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 21, 2013 After its defeat in 1992 Labour went to great lengths to ensure that it would not lose a fifth successive general election. A key part of the strategy was a ruthless approach to targeting. So seats that were beyond the party’s reach were simply ignored and seats in Labour’s heartlands which were certainties were also put into that category. That…

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The Blairites offer Ed some advice

The Blairites offer Ed some advice

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The Blairties offer Ed some advice, New PB Threadwww7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/arch… twitter.com/TSEofPB/status… — TSEPB (@TSEofPB) April 16, 2013 In recent weeks and days, the architects of Labour’s victories in 1997, 2001 and 2005 have been commenting upon the leadership of Ed Miliband and the broader approach of the party. Lord Mandelson said Ed Balls’ attacks on government spending cuts have become “predictable” and “tiring to the public” He concluded If the Labour Party is going to go into the next election and…

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It is questionable that Tony could have done what Gordon did and denied Dave a majority in 2010

It is questionable that Tony could have done what Gordon did and denied Dave a majority in 2010

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Henry G Manson disputes Blair’s assertion that he’d have done better than Brown @ GE2010.bit.ly/16Boguz twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 5, 2013 Henry G Manson with a “What if” scenario Tony Blair’s remarks that “he could have given Cameron a run for his money” have raised a few eyebrows this morning. It’s opened up an intriguing “what if” scenario. It’s easy to look back in rose-tinted spectacles, and a number of commentators such as John Rentoul have an interest…

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