Why the potential for swingback is so limited
There’s a new Populus online poll out – the third in just eight days – and all the fieldwork took place over the weekend. The figures with changes on Friday’s poll are LAB 39 (â†”); CON 32 (â†‘1); LD 12 (â†”); UKIP 9 (â†“1).
What’s extraordinary about GE2015 voting intention polling is how little crossover there has been between the two main parties since GE2010.
Just look at the chart above showing the latest split from Populus – just 6% of CON 2010 voters saying they’ve switched to Labour which equates to less than 2% of the national vote share.
So if Dave manages to claw back the entire segment the overall impact would be minimal.
- The fact that so few CON voters have gone to Miliband’s party means that the predicted “swingback to a governing party” potential is not very large
The reason, of course, why LAB is looking so good is that it retains the 2010 Lib Dems – most of whom switched in the early days of the coalition and have stayed.
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