— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 22, 2013
Is Eastleigh where he’ll try to get into Westminster?
By far the most recognised UKIP politician is the leader, Nigel Farage, and clearly he’s the one who you’d think would have the best chance of becoming an MP at GE2015.
The party’s best performance ever in a Westminster seat was at Eastleigh in February when they came second behind the Lib Dems and picked up 28% of the vote. Farage has the benefit of having stood there before – at the June 1994 by-election in the seat.
Given the circumstances of the by-election to replace Chris Huhne I always thought that Farage made a mistake not contesting that one himself.
Back in May his party maintained the momentum from February and did well in the local elections picking up council seats. It appears to have a good organisation.
The only problem with Farage going for that seat is that the candidate from February, Diane James, might be equally well placed to win there for the purples.
Interestingly Eastleigh will be one of the few places where UKIP will be able to make a tactical appeal to CON voters as having the best chance of beating the LDs.
PaddyPower make UKIP a 6/1 shot for Eastleigh – might be worth a punt whoever is the candidate.