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Category: Labour

The exit door. The state of Labour as Jeremy Corbyn departs

The exit door. The state of Labour as Jeremy Corbyn departs

What of Labour?  This is a question that almost no one is thinking about as, almost unnoticed, Jeremy Corbyn slips out of the limelight.  Like the Magnificent Ambersons, Labour have got their comeuppance. They’d got it three times filled and running over. But those who had longed for it were not there to see it. And they never knew it, those who were still living had forgotten all about it, and all about them. That irrelevance bodes ill for Labour. …

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The current big UK betting market: Who’ll be next Shadow Chancellor?

The current big UK betting market: Who’ll be next Shadow Chancellor?

This market from Ladbrokes about who will succeed John McDonnell as Shadow Chancellor is an intriguing market. I’m working on the assumption that Sir Keir Starmer wins the Labour leadership quite comfortably which gives him plenty of latitude in who to choose. I’m ruling out anyone who is in the Deputy Leader race as I think they’ll end up focussing on that role exclusively. I’m ruling out Rebecca Long Bailey because I have a hunch that Starmer wants to move…

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Labour must get over its myth of 2017 if it is to win again

Labour must get over its myth of 2017 if it is to win again

A well-timed aberration is still an aberration Keir Starmer looks well set to win Labour’s leadership election in April. After securing comfortable leads among MPs, CLPs and affiliate organisations in the previous rounds, YouGov reported this week that he holds a 22% lead over Rebecca Long-Bailey, and is more likely than not to win on the first round. If he does, it will be in no small part down to the last set of rule changes which at the time…

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Ladbrokes make it 2/1 that RLB will finish third behind Starmer and Nandy in its leadership finishing order betting

Ladbrokes make it 2/1 that RLB will finish third behind Starmer and Nandy in its leadership finishing order betting

Ladbrokes have this market on the correct finishing order in the Labour leadership market after the final round. The tweets by Matt Singh indicate that Rebecca Long Bailey is going to finish last but I’m always dubious when people talk about private polls and do not publish the polling tables. At 2/1, Starmer first, Nandy second, and Long Bailey third, it’s not exactly stellar odds when you remember the last public poll had Long Bailey in second place 25% ahead…

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A reminder of the last July’s YouGov LAB members’ polling on the leadership

A reminder of the last July’s YouGov LAB members’ polling on the leadership

We have not had a poll of LAB members since last July so the YouGov chart above is based on the latest data available. Since then, of course, three of those senior party figures tested by the firm are no longer possible runners. Tom Watson has quit being an MP, Laura Pidcock lost her seat at on December 12th while John McDonnell has made his intentions clear. Note that in the polling each potential leader was tested separately but it…

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Labour’s GE2019 post mortem

Labour’s GE2019 post mortem

Proverbial wisdom tells us that success has many fathers, while failure is an orphan. It’s a saying that appears to have by-passed the Labour party at least, since their general response to the election has been to hurl fistfuls of paternity tests at each other in a way that would send Jeremy Kyle off for a cold shower and a lie down. It’s been an analytically productive grand bun fight at least. While the pollsters are still nursing their hangovers,…

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Long-Bailey back as next LAB leader favourite in very edgy betting market

Long-Bailey back as next LAB leader favourite in very edgy betting market

There’s been a lot more movement on the Corbyn’s successor betting market on Betfair as the betdata.io chart with Starmer now losing his lead and Long-Bailey moving again into the top slot in the betting. What’s going to shake this up is new polling both of LAB members and votes generally. It will be recalled that back in June Johnson’s leadership chances soared following polling that indicted that we would do better against LAB. Of course it is members of…

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Labour’s Delusions

Labour’s Delusions

“It takes 20 years to build a reputation and 5 minutes to ruin it.” Buffet’s saying has been one which many in finance have had cause to ponder in recent years. Turned round, it applies to political parties: “a toxic reputation takes 5 minutes to develop, 20 years to shake off.” Consider how long it’s taken the Tories to get past (if they have) the “nasty party” tag. From its development in the 1980s, it was 18 years before the…

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