Does Liverpool risk triggering a breach between Labour and its biggest affiliate? Of all the elections being contested on May 6, one of the easiest to call should have been the Liverpool mayoral race. On both previous occasions, Labour won on first preferences with a lead of at least 30%. Labour holds all four parliamentary seats with majorities of at least 27,000 or 60%. It is not quite one-party territory – a fifth of the council seats are held by…
No permutation looks a natural fit Elections: remember them? For most of the country, they’ve become a distant memory. Aside from a handful of council by-elections in Scotland in the autumn, there’s been nothing for ten months. They are, however, due to return with a vengeance in May with elections for some or all of 149 English councils, plus 13 mayors (including London and all the large combined-authorities), 40 Police & Crime Commissioners, the London Assembly, Scottish Parliament and Welsh…
Where is Team Starmer? Sir Keir Starmer has a lot going for him. He is credible as a PM-in-waiting, which is more than can be said for his two predecessors. He seems competent, thoughtful, consistent, honourable, and honest, which are not conspicuous strengths of our current PM. Admittedly he is rather dull, and a poor public speaker, but overall voters think quite favourably of him; his net ratings were modestly positive in six out of the seven December polls. One…
The wheel turns. In 2005, Labour won 355 seats, a majority of 64. The Conservatives got just 198. But last year, the Conservatives took 365 seats, a majority of 80, while Labour secured just 202. The two elections as close to exact reverses of each other as you’ll ever get for the major parties. Labour would like to turn the tables again. In order to do so, they’ll need to decide how this is achievable. In essence, they have three…
The Shadow Chancellor’s response to Sunak’s updated support package this week was well made. Ms Dodds has been saying much the same these past few months, if sotto voce. Perhaps because of this – and despite Starmer generally getting the better of the PM at PMQs – Labour has not broken through in the polls. The Tories’ large leads have largely evaporated so that is something. But the question remains. Why hasn’t Labour made more of an impact? This government…
Governments-in-waiting set the agenda Ed Miliband is unfairly maligned. It’s true that he couldn’t eat a bacon sandwich gracefully. It’s also true that he was always a bit of a wonk and, in the testosterone-fuelled world of Westminster and electoral politics, a bit beta. Even now, his brother is shorter odds to be next Labour leader than he is (50/1 and 80/1, respectively), despite his not having been an MP for seven years, while Ed is once again in the…
Governments with no effective opposition become arrogant and complacent Why did the Lib Dems choose the Tories over Labour after the inconclusive 2010 general election? Although only a decade ago, it could as well have been a lifetime given how much has changed since – and in the last five years in particular. But that change makes the question all the more pertinent. The numbers were a big part of it, of course. The Tories could promise a stable government…
My 25/1 tip as next Labour leader. It might seem odd, even before a pandemic, to start looking at Sir Keir Starmer’s successor a fortnight after he was elected, in normal circumstances the earliest there might be a vacancy in 2024 and if Starmer takes power at the next general election there might not be a vacancy for a decade or longer so it is possible the next leader of the Labour party isn’t on this list. Things can rapidly…