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All the pollsters finding that current LAB voters reluctant to give Corbyn their full backing

All the pollsters finding that current LAB voters reluctant to give Corbyn their full backing

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Corbyn has got the Ed Miliband problem Looking back over GE2015 polls what should have raised questions about the voting intention findings was that in all the leader ratings of different forms Ed Miliband was always a long way behind Cameron. I made that mistake. People are voting for a Prime Minister and their view of the contenders is, as I’ve argued, a much better pointer to election outcomes than their party choice where the polls have failed twice in…

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Clegg’s YouGov ratings were substantially better than Corbyn’s now getting just before the election that saw his party almost wiped out

Clegg’s YouGov ratings were substantially better than Corbyn’s now getting just before the election that saw his party almost wiped out

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me> Corbynistas in denial about his dire ratings – historically best pointer to GE outcomes. Chart via @liamjlhill pic.twitter.com/w4rR3LGPyw — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 27, 2015 One of the polling elements that I’ve been highlighting in recent weeks is how leader ratings have proved to be a better pointer to electoral outcomes than voting intention polling. The above charts seek to put into context Corbyn’s latest ratings. Clearly there’s four and a half years still to go and things can…

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The 2016 elections do not bode well for Labour

The 2016 elections do not bode well for Labour

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Corbyn is set to do worse than Ed Miliband in his first major electoral test. In the Sunday Times (££)  Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher have analysed the 60 local council elections since Jeremy Corbyn became leader. The best way to measure what is happening, however, is to look at the changes in those places where a post-Corbyn by-election reprises a contest previously held on general election day earlier this year. There are 27 such cases where Labour fielded a candidate…

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LAB’s one big hope is that the Tories will tear themselves apart over the EU

LAB’s one big hope is that the Tories will tear themselves apart over the EU

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What’s the post EURef blue team going to be like? The Tories have a long history of tearing themselves apart over Europe. Who can forget how in the weeks after John Major’s sensational election victory in 1992 huge fault lines started to develop in the party. It wasn’t helped by “black Wednesday” – that extraordinary day when Britain could not sustain the value of sterling on the foreign exchanges markets and the country had to leave the ERM. How lucky…

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This is the sort of leadership polling that’ll be seized on by Corbyn’s Labour opponents

This is the sort of leadership polling that’ll be seized on by Corbyn’s Labour opponents

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Why Opinium’s switched from approval ratings to favourability @MSmithsonPB mainly to counter the fact that all my Tory-supporting colleagues strongly approve of the job he's doing — Adam Drummond (@AGKD123) December 20, 2015 If leader ratings really are the best electoral pointer then CON looks set to be in power until at least May 2025 From where I stand there are two ways that Corbyn could be brought down. The first is a growing realisation from polling and elections results…

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Corbyn supporters are a broad church. Labour MPs worried that he is leading them to defeat need to engage with their new members.

Corbyn supporters are a broad church. Labour MPs worried that he is leading them to defeat need to engage with their new members.

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The Donald Brind column: From a Labour perspective “I learned long ago, never to wrestle with a pig. You get dirty, and besides, the pig likes it.” – George Bernard Shaw. The Shavian quote was offered to me by the wise and erudite Lewis Baston after I recounted to him a Twitter spat with blogger Dan Hodges. For the avoidance of doubt, Hodges, who hails from a Labour family but earns his living from the Telegraph and the Spectator, is…

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The pre-Xmas polling rush continues with poor Corbyn Ipsos MORI ratings but LAB now just 4% behind CON with ComRes

The pre-Xmas polling rush continues with poor Corbyn Ipsos MORI ratings but LAB now just 4% behind CON with ComRes

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Chart showing latest @IpsosMORI leader satisfaction ratings pic.twitter.com/P4d6CvaLy9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 17, 2015 Sharpish drop in Corybn's @IpsosMORI satisfaction ratings amongst LAB voters pic.twitter.com/J0ANmElSjr — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 17, 2015 Via @robfordmancs . Net MORI satisfaction ratings after 3 monthsFoot -21Kinnock + 13Smith + 12Blair +27 Brown + 18Ed M + 1 Corbyn -17 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 17, 2015 LAB gets closer in Mail ComRes phone pollCon 37 (-3) Lab 33 (+4) UKIP 11 (nc)…

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Why GE2020 should NOT be between Osborne and Corbyn

Why GE2020 should NOT be between Osborne and Corbyn

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Both would be liabilities for their parties Today’s PMQs was without Cameron so it was George Osborne facing Labour’s official deputy Anna Eagle whose performance immediately set off betting speculation about her being Corbyn’s successor. Certainly by comparison with those from Labour who’ve been on that side of the House for several years Eagle was excellent. She was funny, warm and intellectually confident in a completely different league from her boss Mr. Corbyn and Ed Miliband who went before. You…

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