Why Opinium’s switched from approval ratings to favourability
@MSmithsonPB mainly to counter the fact that all my Tory-supporting colleagues strongly approve of the job he's doing
— Adam Drummond (@AGKD123) December 20, 2015
If leader ratings really are the best electoral pointer then CON looks set to be in power until at least May 2025
From where I stand there are two ways that Corbyn could be brought down. The first is a growing realisation from polling and elections results that the Tories are a certainty for GE2020 and that the red team will be out of power till at least 2025. Nearly ten years is an awful long time.
The second is if the Corbyn clan do something that is so alienating to the mainstream of the party’s MPs that they say “up with this we will not put any longer”. Maybe doing something like admitting George Galloway back into the party, which is being discussed at the moment, could provide a trigger.
On the polling we are seeing an extra focus on leader ratings where Corbyn is doing particularly badly. Normally the first 100 days is a sort of honeymoon for a new leader. Not so with Corbyn who has seen some terrible numbers. This won’t be helped by Opinium’s decision to poll on leader favourability – a form that shows the new man in the worst light.
The firm’s Adam Drummond’s comment above is very telling about why this format is probably better in getting a proper sense of what opinion is.
I still think that Corbyn will survive. Inertia is a very powerful force particularly in the Labour Party.