Browsed by
Category: Guest slot

Will the scandal impact on public views of the press?

Will the scandal impact on public views of the press?

Comments 0 Comment

Mark Gill puts it in an international perspective The phone hacking scandal is unlikely to make a huge difference to the public’s view of the press. The chart below shows the proportion of people who “tend not to” trust the press, from across a range of European countries. This survey was conducted in November 2010 and clearly shows that well before the present media scandal, the UK public stood out for being by far the most sceptical about their newspapers….

Read More Read More

Will the public ever learn to love the Conservatives?

Will the public ever learn to love the Conservatives?

Comments 0 Comment

Is detoxification harder when the party is in power? One of the lessons from the 2005-2010 Parliament was the need for the Conservative Party to go much further in tackling its image problem – “detoxifying” its brand – before it was able to develop (or at least articulate) a detailed programme of serious policy commitments. This was a strategic decision taken long before the economic collapse resulted in the parties necessarily having to rethink their policy goals. The evidence from…

Read More Read More

Mark Gill on the private/public sector worker divide?

Mark Gill on the private/public sector worker divide?

Comments 0 Comment

(Mike Smithson is on holiday for the next 11 days and one of the features on PB during his absence is a series of articles by Mark Gill – former head of political research at Ipsos-MORI and co-author with Bob Worcester, Roger Mortimore, Paul Baines of Explaining Cameron’s Coalition) Does Labour’s lead amongst the latter matter? Labour are way more popular among public sector workers, but how much does this matter? One of the benefits of the detailed data tables…

Read More Read More

When is party thinking going to move on from the 80s?

When is party thinking going to move on from the 80s?

Comments 0 Comment

A guest slot by CycleFree According to the weekend’s papers, Ed Milliband is going to argue that his “Promise for Britain” means that “bankers and those on welfare need to have a sense of responsibility to their communities.” All fine – as far as it goes – but the feebleness of what is expected is striking. At a time when we are living through one of the worst crises in capitalism in decades (not yet over and which may indeed…

Read More Read More

And now Roger on the Oscars – this year decided by AV

And now Roger on the Oscars – this year decided by AV

Comments 0 Comment

(Every year on PB Roger gives us his Oscar predictions and betting advice. Those who who’ve followed his analysis have generally come out as winners – let’s hope it’s the same this year – MS) Where are the awards going to go? A great year for British films which I hope can withstand the philistinism of this Tory government. Stjohn asked if I could suggest value bets so where two films are close I’ll suggest he takes a punt on…

Read More Read More

Nick Sparrow’s first PB polling column

Nick Sparrow’s first PB polling column

Comments 0 Comment

The LibDem Collapse, Fact or Fiction The latest polls indicate that if another general election were to be held tomorrow Labour would sweep back to power with a majority (assuming uniform swing) of 46 over all other parties. The Conservatives would lose 45 seats, despite maintaining their 2010 share of the vote. The Liberal Democrats meanwhile would lose 41 of their 57 MPs, leaving them representing a paltry 16 Constituencies. In 7 short months since the 2010 election, 6 in…

Read More Read More

HenryG asks: Will OES’s female public sector workers be crucial?

HenryG asks: Will OES’s female public sector workers be crucial?

Comments 0 Comment

Is this the group that will destroy LD hopes? Labour has already drawn attention to the decision by the Liberal Democrats to break with tradition and move the writ for the Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election. The effect of the timing was to seemingly disenfranchise up to 1000 students not yet returning for their studies. Cunning manoeuvre? Yep. New politics? Not exactly. However it is another group of voters that should be causing the Lib Dems greater anxiety in the…

Read More Read More

Jonathan on Sunday

Jonathan on Sunday

Comments 0 Comment

A tale of two elections At first glance, the 2010 and 2001 general elections couldn’t be more different. But look again and you can see a curious coincidence that may have a bearing on the future. In 2001, Labour won a landslide and was secure in power for more than 5 years. Turnout was low, largely because the result was widely expected. The 2010 election was close, turnout rose. We ended up with a balanced hung parliament, which created the…

Read More Read More