Could the by-election have given them a lift? Most of the fieldwork for the weekend’s polls took place before news of Labour big victory in the by election came through. That won’t be the case with the two phone polls from ICM and MORI where the fieldwork started on Friday and finished last night. Generally polls that are undertaken in the immediate aftermath of by elections give the winner a boost if only because of the extra exposure in the…
Is this a polite way of saying “I’m not voting”? Another poll this morning, the ComRes one for the Indy on Sunday, has a huge 19 percent share for “others” including 6 percent for the Greens. This is out of line with other firms but follows a 5 percent share in the ComRes poll at the end of October and, as we might recall, what proved to be a wildly optimistic 15 percent in the firm’s final survey ahead of…
Tory pressman Henry Macrory has just Twittered to say “Two polls tonight will give Conservatives a 14pt lead”. I assume that these are YouGov and ComRes. So it’s no change with the lead from YouGov but a one point increase from ComRes. Mike Smithson
Polling has just closed and we’ll all have to wait. I’m on Labour at an average of 0.83/1 on Betfair and, of course, I’m betting that the turnout will be greater than 38%. Mike Smithson
CON 39%(-1) LAB 29%(-1) LD 18%(nc) UKIP 4.3% (+2) BNP 2% (nc) GRN ???? SNP/PC ???? UKIP gets a two point boost Although the figures are different the trends in tonight Populus poll for the Times are broadly similar to that which we saw in the last poll – the Angus Reid one for PB. The Tories down a bit and there’s an increase in the overall share for others with UKIP moving up. The gap between the Tories and…
CON 38%(-2) LAB 24%(+1) LD 20%(nc) UKIP 6% (+1) BNP 4% (+1) GRN 3% (nc) SNP/PC 4% (-1) And the Tories slip into the 30s? The most striking characteristics of this afternoon’s exclusive new poll by Angus Reid Strategies for Politicalbetting.com are the increases in the shares for UKIP and the BNP with the Tories slipping down to 38%. Like yesterday’s YouGov poll the total proportion of respondents opting for other parties has seen an increase with Angus Reid reporting…
BBC news
Are we seeing a new approach from the speaker? The main feature for me of a fairly subdued PMQs was the readiness of the speaker, John Bercow, to stop Gordon Brown from using his replies to attack opposition policy – something that has become almost common place. It happened in a reply on the first question on the NHS. Brown was just about to launch into an attack on some comments that shadow health secretary Andrew Lansley had made when…