Could the by-election have given them a lift?
Most of the fieldwork for the weekend’s polls took place before news of Labour big victory in the by election came through.
That won’t be the case with the two phone polls from ICM and MORI where the fieldwork started on Friday and finished last night. Generally polls that are undertaken in the immediate aftermath of by elections give the winner a boost if only because of the extra exposure in the media.
Theoretically at least this should be more marked in polls like ICM and MORI with heavy “certainty to vote” weightings. Supporters feel more encouraged and give a higher rating to the “how certain are you” question. MORI, of course, only includes the “100% certains” in its headline figures.
I’m particularly keen to see the Guardian ICM poll because this has broadly the same methodology as Populus which last week gave Labour its best rating since the previous Populus poll in October.
Will Populus still be the pollster with the best Labour position?
News of ICM should be out this evening while we might have to wait until tomorrow for MORI.