CON 39%(38) LAB 22%(25 24) LD 21%(20) OTHERS 18% (18) Labour only one point ahead of the Lib Dems There’s a new Angus Reid Strategies poll exclusively for PB and it shows a very different picture from the Ipsos-MORI survey that was published in the Observer yesterday. The fieldwork for this 2,000 sample online poll started on Friday and only finished today. It had not been the plan to release it early but given all the attention there is being…
Wikimedia Do the Tories really need a 10 point margin? A couple of weeks ago alex posted this on a thread during a discussion about the much talked about “bias to Labour” in the electoral system – something that has become more relevant with the hung parliament talk. He wrote:-“..the claims for “bias†are based on the theory..that the Conservatives need a 10% lead for an outright majority whereas Labour only need to be about level. Confusing cause and effect….
Wikipedia Which 2005 “notional” result should we believe? After JackW’s earlier thread I thought I’d have a further look at Morley & Outwood – the seat with new boundaries that the Schools Secretary, the public-school educated Mr. Balls, will try to defend at the coming election. And to my surprise I came up with two rather different projections of what the 2005 election outcome would have been on the new boundaries. Anthony Wells UKPollingReport has this:- LAB 19956 (50.2%): CON:…
Victory in the EU race for the pollster’s spouse New is just coming out of the names of the two people who will be proposed afor the EU’s top jobs. They are Belgian Prime Minister Herman Van Rompuy the presidency and Britain’s Baroness Ashton as the EU’s foreign policy chief. The latter was tipped here by PB’s Morus, Greg Callus, when she was still 50/1. Baroness Ashton was in the cabinet until last year when she was appointed to take…
Wikimedia Commons Join the informal PB gathering Thanks to the initiative of Fat Steve there’ll be an informal PB get-together in the City, near Liverpool Street station, on Thursday November 26th. Unlike previous events this will be highly informal – a sort of “after-work drinks†for London-based PBers or those who can get there easily. Steve has found a location in a pub where it’s hoped that we can have our own area and already sixteen people have signed up….
Spectator How can he come up with such a distortion? I’ve clipped the above Rod Liddle piece from the Spectator site.(HatTip – The Screaming Eagles) In it he argues that we might be leading to a 1992-type result. Who knows? But the evidence he presents in support of his case does not match the facts. He writes that in the weeks leading up to the Glasgow NE by election “the average of a bunch of opinion polls showed the Tory…
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