Should Rod Liddle avoid political predicting?

Should Rod Liddle avoid political predicting?


How can he come up with such a distortion?

I’ve clipped the above Rod Liddle piece from the Spectator site.(HatTip – The Screaming Eagles) In it he argues that we might be leading to a 1992-type result. Who knows? But the evidence he presents in support of his case does not match the facts.

He writes that in the weeks leading up to the Glasgow NE by election “the average of a bunch of opinion polls showed the Tory lead nationwide down to 10 per cent, which I would have thought Labour strategists would consider a manageable lead.”

Eh? That simply isn’t the case.

But then I remembered that it was the same Rod Liddle who went to Norwich North in the week before July’s by election and told us that the Green party was going to win. They came in fifth.

For the record Rod this is the latest list of polls from UKPollingReport. I suggest that you bookmark it and refers to it again whenever you venture to comment on polling again.

Maybe an even better idea is to steer away from political prediction. One thing about being a gambler is that you try to get your facts right before risking cash.

Mike Smithson

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