CON 40%(39) LAB 27%(29) LD 18%(19) OTHERS 15% (13) Will this ease the jitters in Camp Cameron? ConservativeHome is reporting the above shares for a YouGov poll for tomorrow’s Sunday Times. The changes shown are with the last survey from the pollster NOT the last one in the Sunday Times. The shares are a marked change on the 10 percent lead in the Telegraph last Saturday but the changes are all within the margin of error. Having said that there…
Will the 1990s NuLab stars bring back the magic? The career path is well worn: a group has striking success but over the years, personality clashes emerge, they feel themselves getting stale and want a change or believe themselves constrained by the band and want to strike out on a solo career. The fans however aren’t so keen and the public’s initial interest fades. Before long, they’ve been eclipsed by newer and fresher faces. That might be the end of…
Five Reasons Why UKIP Won’t Win In Buckingham (1) The Speaker’s Absolute Number of Votes Holds Up Very Well. Perhaps it’s because the speaker is a naturally prestigous role, but contested by the other parties or not, the speakers’ vote has tended to hold up very well. In fact if you look at the average votes the speaker has got, going back to 1974, and compares it to the average that parties polled in the surrounding elections then you see…
Evening Standard How’ll this go down with Buckingham Tories? Thanks to Ben Brogan in his Telegraph blog for spotting the remarkable interview that the wife of the speaker, Sally Bercow, has given to the Evening Standard. As regulars will know I’ve come in for a bit of stick over my betting on ex-UKIP leader, Nigel Farage, who is standing against Sally’s husband, John. My reasoning has been that Bercow was elected to this ultra-safe Tory seat as a Tory and…
CON 37%(39) LAB 27%(25) LD 20%(17) OTHERS 16% (19) But have the seat calculators got it right? There’s a new poll out tonight from ComRes for tomorrow’s Independent which has the Tory lead down to ten points but with the Lib Dem continuing to do well. For the Tories another poll having them below the 40 mark might add to the jitters as we enter the run in period to the election. Only ICM of the six firms that regularly…
Does this show that marginals are behaving differently? The first information about the YouGov poll of Northern marginals is just coming out. We haven’t seen a report yet of the poll and much detail is missing but an editorial for tomorrow’s paper has been published and contains the crucial headline figures. It notes that the Conservative party: “…. leads Labour by 42 per cent to 36 per cent in northern marginal seats. Indeed, the Tories appear to be doing better…
Angus Reid Strategies My apologies for the delay in making the detailed available from last night Politicalbetting Angus Reid Strategies poll. As I explained I was keen to make the main figures available as soon as possible and the fieldwork had only ended a few hours earlier. One element that makes this poll different is the wording of the voting intention question – “If a General Election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you be most…
Why polling is all about the trend The overnight survey from PB’s pollster, Angus Reid Strategies, is the third that we’ve had since the site’s arrangement with the Canadian online firm was launched in October – and the big message is that there’s been very little change. All three polls have had the three main parties and others moving in very narrow ranges all well within the margin of error. The Tories have been at 40, 38 and now 39;…