Now the detail from last night’s PB poll

Now the detail from last night’s PB poll

Angus Reid Strategies

My apologies for the delay in making the detailed available from last night Politicalbetting Angus Reid Strategies poll. As I explained I was keen to make the main figures available as soon as possible and the fieldwork had only ended a few hours earlier.

One element that makes this poll different is the wording of the voting intention question – “If a General Election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you be most likely to support in your constituency?”.

Notice the emphasis on what people will do locally – important as the implications of tactical/negative voting become more critical.

We are hoping, though this has not been finalised yet, to mount at least one marginals poll in the new year.

The AR split for London C41-L26-LD24 is in marked contrast to the Observer’s Ipsos-MORI poll which was showing a big lead for Labour. It’s also interesting that in the capital the proportion opting for “others” is much smaller than in the rest of Britain.

Notice, too, that in the rest of the south the shares are C46-L15-LD22 – so the survey is showing that Labour is in a poor third place.

Having noted that I must put the usual caveats on placing too much importance on sub-sets.

Mike Smithson

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