Browsed by
Category: General

The Swingback Myth – Do governments really recover?

The Swingback Myth – Do governments really recover?

A re-run of Andy Cooke’s December 2007 guest slot (This analysis first appeared on PB in December 2007 and has been much quoted both here and in the mainstream media since. It’s even more timely today and I thought it was worth re-running – MS) One of the most widely held items of received wisdom is “The opinion polls always swing back towards the Government as the Election approaches”. That mid-term blues will always overemphasise an Opposition’s performance in the…

Read More Read More

What will the politics of 2020 be like?

What will the politics of 2020 be like?

Andy Welsh Flickr How will the decade just beginning end? The turning of the decades is an opportune time to lift our gaze from the transient ephemera of polls, speeches and even by-elections to the deeper questions of where politics is headed over the next ten years and what are the drivers of that change. However, before looking forward, a brief glance back. The first decade of the 21st century has not been a good one for politics or politicians….

Read More Read More

Guest slot from Patrick on the impact of turnout

Guest slot from Patrick on the impact of turnout

Do the Tories do best if more people are voting? The chart above shows the actual number of votes cast for all parties from 1979 to 2005 and also the total of votes not cast (the paler blue line) from within the overall electorate each year. For 2010 I have assumed the current state of the polls CON 40%: LAN 28%: LD 19%: OTH 13% (at 75% turnout). Two shapes leap out: 1.The blue Tory and Did Not Vote (DNV)…

Read More Read More

The 2009 PB Poster of the Year – the final round

The 2009 PB Poster of the Year – the final round

Voting is open to all PBers whether they post or not The PB Poster of the Year – The Final Five. Please vote for one only. Richard Nabavi David Herdson Yellow Submarine Easterross Peter the Punter    And don’t forget the PB Tipster of the Year In the first round of voting Richard Nabavi came top just ahead of David Herdson and Yellow Submarine. There were only going to be four places but when I checked at the appointed time…

Read More Read More

Merry Christmas to all PBers everywhere

Merry Christmas to all PBers everywhere

A message from OGH – “Our Genial Host” Just to say happy Christmas to the entire PB community and thank you for all your support during the year. It’s been the positive responses from everybody and the continued enthusiasm for PB that has made it a pleasure to run. Thanks also to my son Robert for maintaining the technical infrastructure and enabling the changes that we found we needed last June when traffic shot through the roof at the time…

Read More Read More

The Voting: Round One – choose the 4 person short-list

The Voting: Round One – choose the 4 person short-list

Note – You can vote for as many on the list as you wish Choose the short-list for the PB Poster of the Year. Vote for as many of these as you wish and the top four will go into a FPTP final ballot Wibbler Richard Nabavi Yellow Submarine Bunnco AntiFrank Nick Palmer Jonathan runnymede Tim alex Stodge Ted Mark Senior David Herdson Easterross Stuart Dickson Andy Cooke marcia ChristinaD The Screaming Eagles Roger Coldstone Scott P Another Richard Peter…

Read More Read More

Who’s going to be the PB Poster of 2009?

Who’s going to be the PB Poster of 2009?

Your chance to submit a nomination It’s Christmas and time for our annual election for who has been the PB Poster of the Year. Please note that there will be a separate election next week for the PB betting tipster of the year – this first election is about politics purely and simple. The selection process is in two parts: this thread when nominations are invited and then the online election itself. Who has contributed most to your understanding of…

Read More Read More

Would you sell Labour at 1,000 pounds a seat?

Would you sell Labour at 1,000 pounds a seat?

Sporting Index Now the high rollers are entering the market After all the excitement on the commons seats spread markets last week there’s been a sharp reverse following the latest spate of opinion polls. A couple of days ago I was noting that there’s been a rush of big value bets on Labour. One at £1,000 a seat was a Labour buy and there’d been two £1,000 a seat Tory sells. Well it’s all gone the other way round. This…

Read More Read More