CON SPREAD RANGES 334 -339 Sporting Index 330 – 335 ExtraBet 335 – 338 Betfair Line market LAB SPREAD RANGES 231 – 236 Sporting Index 234 – 239 ExtraBet 231 – 235 Betfair Line market LD SPREAD RANGES 53 – 56 Sporting Index 55 – 58 ExtraBet 53 – 53.5 Betfair Line market The PB index on the projected Tory majority has dropped steeply since it was last calculated a week ago. But it would have shown a bigger move…
Will he ever get a better opportunity? With the Michael Ashcroft story on top of Labour’s stunning progress in the polls surely the time is ripe for Brown to take the gamble and call a snap election? If he doesn’t won’t he look back at this week and see it as an opportunity lost? Such a move would be daring and decisive which of itself could give him a poll boost. Will he do it? He should but probably won’t….
Does the Guardian make a habit of this? Thanks to ChristinaD on the previous thread for reminding us that the Guardian has form for eulogising over a Prime Minister a few weeks after entering Number 10. Today’s Martin Kettle column on David Cameron follows in the tradition set by the above piece from August 2007 shortly after Gordon Brown became Prime Minister. “Has any Prime Minister had a more difficult first month?” the headline read inviting the obvious response –…
In a world where politicians continually try and rebrand themselves and define their image in the public’s mind, and pay agencies a lot of money to attempt it on their behalf, last week we saw one of the most successful rebrandings for years. It is commonly presumed that the public saw Alistair Darling as a bit dull, inoffensive, but useful, like magnolia paint or carrier bags. Well, that was on Monday. By Wednesday his “forces of hell†quote had changed…
? ? ? ? How did the lead drop from 6% to 2% between editions? The massive confusion over what the poll numbers actually were that we saw on the thread overnight is now becoming clear. For after the NOTW reported the 2% gap there were several posts saying the Sunday Times had it at 6%. But the Sunday Times poll findings changed between editions as those who have been watching BBC1 have been told. In the earlier ones it…
Is it healthy that one firm should be so dominant? Consider this:- The last voting intention survey from a firm other than YouGov was from ComRes and completed its fieldwork on June 27th – nearly two and a half weeks ago. There have been thirteen national YouGov polls since then – all but one of for News International which has an exclusivity arrangement with the firm for national papers. The Daily Telegraph has not had a regular pollster since February…
Ipsos-Mori Will the lead continue to tighten? It’s Saturday night and that should bring two things – the latest polls and the second instalment of the Andrew Rawnsley book in the Observer. One thing that hits you when you look at the table above is that only the YouGov daily poll has tested opinion since bullygate and the Darling “forces of hell” statement. All the other surveys that have been published this week have been quite old. I’ve no idea…
(Here is the 2010 version of what has become a great PB tradition – Roger’s Oscars Tips. Those who have followed them up with bets in previous years have almost always made money. Let’s see if this will work again next week – Mike Smithson) 2010 Oscars. Here is a list of the nominations in the main categories followed by my tips for the winners. A competitive year with very few certainties, Best Film. ‘A Serious Man’, ‘An Education’, ‘Avatar,…