YG daily poll: The Sun Apr 6 Apr 5 CONSERVATIVES 40% 41% LABOUR 32% 31% LIB DEMS 17% 18% LAB to CON swing from 2005 5.5% 6.5% So just MOE changes on the first day of the campaign The YouGov daily poll of the campaign, for tomorrow’s Sun is now it and has only margin of error changes on last night. But Labour will be pleased to to have close the gap if only by a bit and the Tories…
Ladbrokes prediction – a Tory majority of eight Mike Smithson
ICM – Guardian Apr 4 Mar 31 CONSERVATIVES 37% 38% LABOUR 33% 29% LIB DEMS 21% 23% LAB to CON swing from 2005 3.5% 6% Could this mean that the red team will get most seats? There’s a new ICM poll for the Guardian just out where the fieldwork was carried out over the holiday weekend. The numbers, with changes on last week’s Guardian/ICM poll show a sharp increase in the Labour numbers to the point where it’s [possible that…
YG daily poll: Sunday Times Apr 3 Apr 1 CONSERVATIVES 39% 39% LABOUR 29% 31% LIB DEMS 20% 19% LAB to CON swing from 2005 6.5% 5.5% Another pollster has Brown’s party in the 20s According to SkyNews the YouGov daily poll for the Sunday Times is now out and has Labour at its lowest level from the firm since December 17th 2009. The figures are almost in line with the 38-27-20 that we had an hour or so ago…
Angus Reid for Sunday Express Apr 3 Mar 31 CONSERVATIVES 38% 37% LABOUR 27% 28% LIB DEMS 20% 22% LAB to CON swing from 2005 7% 6% The first Sunday Express/AR poll A new Angus Reid poll tonight for the Sunday Express has the Tories moving up with Labour and the Lib Dems moving down. The gap is now 11 points. The changes are with the AR poll for PB last Wednesday and are only the second to be based…
Should you bet on him becoming Sir Anthony? In something of a novelty market from William Hill, they’re asking whether Blair will get a knighthood during 2010. As they put it, Former Prime Minister Tony Blair is campaigning for Labour again and as a result William Hill are offering 10/1 that he will be knighted this year. Is that worth taking? I don’t accept Hill’s thinking – I don’t believe for a moment Blair is campaigning because he thinks there…
Telegraph Is all it down to new invitation methodology? There’s a big piece in the Telegraph this morning raising issues that have been discussed at length on PB in the past few weeks – whether Britain’s biggest political pollster, YouGov, is over-stating Labour. The Telegraph, it should be noted, was the online firm’s first major media client – an arrangement that came after the paper switched from Gallup following the 2001 general election. That continued until two months ago when,…
YG daily poll – Sun Apr 1 Mar 31 CONSERVATIVES 39% 38% LABOUR 31% 32% LIB DEMS 19% 19% LAB to CON swing from 2005 5.5% 4.5% So all but TNS are in the same ball-park Here’s the latest daily poll by YouGov for the Sun with the Tory lead getting wider – beyond Labour’s safety zone of a hung parliament. Although the theoretical UNS swing says a bigger gap is required both Tory and Labour HQs are operating on…