Should punters take notice? Apologies to PBers who are bored by the Labour leadership but this is a huge political betting event which is all going to be resolved on Saturday and many have large sums at risk. The outcome, of course, will have a major impact on British politics for years to come. Labour is electing someone it hopes will be the next Prime Minister. So far today we’ve had Dan Hodges at Labour Uncut saying that DaveM has…
It’s now 42/38/11 Tonight’s News International-funded daily poll by YouGov has the Lib Dems down to 11 percent – a level the party has only touched once before since the general election. The shares are: CON 42% LAB 38%: LD 11%. The fieldwork will mostly have taken place before Clegg’s speech this afternoon but after a weekend when the party was getting a high level of attention in the media. If this is mirrored in the next ICM poll then…
Is he going to take his party with him?
Market Odds Nick Clegg to be next PM 20/1 Nick Clegg to join Tories before next election 10/1 Nick Clegg NOT to be leader at 2011 Conference 5/1 2+ LD MPs to form breakaway party before next election 10/1 Or are they just Ladbrokes fund-raising schemes? Ever keen to find new ways to tempt us to part with our money Ladbrokes have put up the above range of market. I’d like a price on the eventuality of none of them…
Betfair Politics Could there be a cross-over? The chart shows the Betfair prices, expressed as percentages, on what’s happening in the Labour race in which voting finishes on Wednesday at 5pm. I don’t think we’ll see another YouGov poll though it’s possible that one might have been commissioned. The moves over the past week have been driven by last Saturday’s survey for the Sunday Times. William Hill has reported that four out of every five bets it has laid on…
Will LAB supporters still vote tactically for the yellows? Ever since the coalition was formed in May there’s been a widespread assumption that the many Labour supporters who voted tactically to support the Lib Dems in battles with the Tories will not do the same next time. This specific point has never been tested until now. But the data from the Michael Ashcroft-funded Populus poll of voters in the Sheffield Hallam and Eastleigh does provide some pointers. For as well…
Poll Date CON LAB LD LEAD Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 15/09/10 37 37 15 0 Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 25/07/10 40 38 14 2 Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 20/06/10 39 31 19 8 And the LDs move up a point What’s only the third MORI poll since the election is out today and has the red and blue teams neck and neck. On cuts Reuters report that most people, three in five, agree that they are necessary, but three-quarters believe it would be better to cut more slowly to…
The latest government approval rating in tonight’s YouGov daily poll has 37% approve to 45% disapprove – a net rating of minus 8. This is the biggest gap by far since the general election.