Can the Woolas factor be so easily sidestepped? The first proper by-election of the 2010 parliament looks set to be a cracker. All three main parties in contention but with Labour having a particular local problem, the Lib Dems well down in the polls from May and the Tories starting in third place it’s surely all to play for – especially once any number of minor candidates are thrown into the mix too. You wouldn’t think so from the betting,…
The worst analysis of the Mid-Terms came from NPR. Apparently, the electorate is the same as 2008, but a different slice turned up this time! I.e., the epochal progressive shift is intact, only the progressives failed to show. There is a kernal of truth in this that the GOP will ignore at its peril – the demographics remain against them unless they can appeal to Latinos. Aside from Rubio (who won Floridian Latinos by the same margin that he won…
Paul Waugh Twitter page In the betting it’s LAB 1/2: CON 4/1: LD 4/1 There’s lots of confusion about the current status of Woolas which has been partly clarified by Paul Waugh’s Tweet. My understanding is that all the parties had been operating on the assumption that if May’s result was voided then this would trigger off a by-election immediately. The date that was being talked about was Thursday December 2nd. This does not leave a lot of time for…
Why the heck was Woolas made a shadow minister? So now we have it. The case has gone against Woolas and we look forward to the by election. But why oh why in the period between the hearing and today’s judgement did Ed Miliband appoint Woolas as a shadow home office minister? Surely he must have been advised that this could go against Labour? As I wrote at the time the Labour leader’s decision simply didn’t make sense – for…
Could “Old & Sad” be the parliament’s first by-election? Tomorrow, unless there’s some last minute change, the judges in the Oldham East & Saddleworth case will give their verdict on Labour’s campaign and whether what was alleged to have been done is sufficient for Labour MP and shadow home office minister, Phil Woolas, to lose his job. This follows a week long hearing in September when the Lib Dem candidate who lost in the general election by 103 votes, Elwyn…
Do both men need to spruce up their acts? I was listening on the radio and maybe it seemed different on TV but neither David Cameron nor Ed Miliband seemed to do particularly well. Cameron was snappy and is not as good as he perhaps should be at soaking up criticism. It was obvious that EdM was likely to raise the photographer appointment to the government payroll and the PM’s response didn’t really convince. Clearly at a time of massive…
Nate Silver at the New York Times I like the way Nate Silver is representing this election as all eyes focus on the west coast states of California and Washington which look set to determine the outcome in the Senate. The GOP has made big gains in the House of Representative winning most of the key races. I was struck by this point from Kieran on the previous thread:- “This configuration (Dem Pres, Dem Senate (if it holds), GOP House)…
How’s it going to look for Obama in the morning? Probably a good link to get early news of exit polls and other information is Huffington Post here. The betting has remained very light with only about £6,000 matched on Betfair during the day. Mike Smithson