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There was a time when the autumn statement from the chancellor was a big economic event – almost as big as the budget itself. In Gordon Brown’s day it was called the “Pre Budget Report” and often saw big tax and other spending announcements. Osborne is doing it differently and is using this afternoon’s statement to provide an update on the state of the economy. Unlike the budget when the opposition leader responds the main opposition reaction will come from…

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The latest Sunday evening slot After only six months, the Web is giving the Coalition headaches. In the US midterms, the Web helped the GOP punish Obama, despite the president’s reputation as a master of Web campaigning. In Ireland, the relentless scrutiny of the Web denied the government vital time and space to fix its financial problems. Berlosconi, Sarkozy and Merkel have all suffered damage from online rumours. Given the difficulties these administrations face, is Government possible in the Internet…

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David Cameron David Cameron “doing well/badly” (YouGov) All (last week) CON voters LAB voters LD voters Well 47 (-4) 96 13 69 Badly 45 (+6) 3 84 22 Ed Miliband Ed Miliband “doing well/badly” (YouGov) All (last week) CON voters LAB voters LD voters Well 28 (-6) 17 56 21 Badly 37 (+5) 52 17 46 Nick Clegg Nick Clegg “doing well/badly” (YouGov) All (last week) CON voters LAB voters LD voters Well 32 (-6) 66 6 69 Badly 56…

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It’s 2/1 that he’ll step down before the election? The Politicalbetting All Pollsters Average (PAPA) – has moved overnight to CON 37.2: LAB 38.5: LD 12.5 . The changes have been caused by the latest YouGov daily poll putting the parties on 40/40/9 and an old poll dropping out of the calculation because it is now one month old. The Lib Dem share is by far the worst since the creation of the coalition and is just over half the…

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Is it worth a long-term bet? I should make clear from the start that I’m not a betting man, but a couple of years ago I caught sight of the absurdly long odds on Scotland becoming independent by 2012, and my jaw dropped to the floor. If ever there was an example of a ‘value bet’, that surely had to be it. Scotland had just elected a nationalist government that was committed to holding an independence referendum within its term…

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Party Votes Cast % Votes Cast Seats Won Change Labour 11,541 32.56% 7 +3 Conservatives 10,367 29.25% 9 -3 Liberal Democrats 4,827 13.62% 1 -1 Independents 2,902 8.19% 3 Unchanged Green Party 2,849 8.04% 0 Unchanged Plaid Cymru 1,006 2.84% 2 +1 SNP 773 2.18% 0 Unchanged UKIP 420 1.19% 0 0 Others 756 2.13% 0 Unchanged GAINS and LOSSES Conservative GAINS: Lyth Valley on South Lakeland from Lib Dem Labour GAINS: Moredon on Swindon from Con, Coleridge on Cambridge…

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A guest slot from Richard Nabavi Any government can be rocked by external events. The MPs’ expenses scandal and the banking crisis dominated much of Gordon Brown’s time in No 10. Whilst we don’t yet know what surprises lie in store for the present government, there is already one crisis which could be a big factor in determining the next election. That is the unfolding financial turmoil in the Eurozone. For the coalition, the big danger is that a recession,…

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Could it just increase the anger and violence? There’s been a strong defence by the Metropolitan police of their tactic of using what’s known as “kettling” yesterday in containing the fees protests in central London. The plan is simple – the demonstrators are trapped for many hours in order to prevent the possibility of mass attacks that could lead to violence and criminal damage on specific targets. Yesterday it was said that they were aiming for the Lib Dem offices…

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