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Part 1 For each of the six candidates, predict their overall percentage share of the first preference votes to one decimal place (ie for all three sections of the electoral college combined – do not make a prediction for the three individual components). To assist in running the competition, please make your predictions in the following order: • Hilary Benn • Hazel Blears • John Cruddas • Peter Hain • Harriet Harman • Alan Johnson Part 2 Select one candidate…

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Could the ex-LD leader be being courted by Gordon? After a morning of denials, rumours, claim and counter-claims there is a suggestion that the person behind the Guardian story is the former leader, Paddy Ashdown, who was involved in the 1997 linkage between the Lib Dems and Labour. According to the blog by the Daily Mail’s Ben Brogan “Westminster rumour has it that it came from a briefing by Lord Ashdown to Alan Rusbridger, the Guardian editor, which explains the…

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Is this the time to pounce? With Cameron continuing to have polling difficulties and the Lib Dems still shedding support could Brown be considering an immediate general election? The standard view is that he’s a notoriously cautious man and that after his long wait he’s not going to risk it by a precipitous election decision. But will there be a better time than now when he has all attraction of novelty going for him? He would have his own mandate…

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A new poll in the Sunday Times has the Tories at 37%, Labour at 35% and the Lib Dems down 14%. This follows a period when because of the transition Labour has squeezed the other parties out of the news. The last YouGov Poll was taken when the Tories were getting a lot of coverage because of the grammar row. It is my theory that the more Cameron is in the news, even if he is being attacked, the better…

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Can Labour secure a fourth term? Along with several other pb-ers I spent yesterday at the Central Hall Westminster at the British Polling Council conference on the general election. As well as people from the site the partipants included academics, political journalists, civil servants, representatives from the parties as well as almost every leading figure in the UK polling industry. Lots of ideas and data emerged which will be featured in future posts. Today’s piece is limited by me being…

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Is London Really So Good for the Conservatives? Lots of commentators have drawn attention to the comparatively strong performance of the Conservatives in London, in recent year. From winning outright control of four boroughs in 1998, the Conservatives advanced to eight in 2002, and fourteen in 2006. Over the same period, they have increased their number of councillors from 538 to 785, the largest of any party, and regained ten Parliamentary seats, a third of the gains they have made…

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Is this a boost for Harman and Hain or not? The above is from the detail of this month’s Populus poll which wasn’t given much attention when it came out. It shows what happened when Populus showed pictures of the six contenders for the Deputy Leadership to 1,006 randomly selected members of the public in a poll. My concern here is not whether Harman is marginally better known than the rest but what is says about public interest in the…

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Boost for Palmer as Labour get 0.4% swing in Broxtowe It’s not going to be possible for Sean’s normal Friday slot to go up today but we could not let the day go by without recording formally the results from last night’s council by elections including a swing to Labour in Broxtowe – where PB’s Nick Palmer is the MP. These were by election results:- Broxtowe Borough – Beeston Central (two seats): Lab 728, 677, C 498, 481, Lib Dem…

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