Is the detention limit extension a good battle-ground for Labour? On the second day of the Queen’s speech debate battle was joined on what’s likely to be a difficult issue for the government in the coming session – the move to extend the maximum period that suspects can be held with trial beyond the current 28 days. This is an issue that the Blair government tried and failed to push before but is one that Brown has decided to raise…
What can we learn from the “Supervoters”? The above data is from yesterday’s poll and shows how votes are churning between the main three parties from those who told the firm how they voted in 2005. In a previous post I’ve called this group the”super-voters” because those with a record of turning out at a previous general elections are, surely, much more likely to turnout at the next one? This has never been tested before. ICM only started providing this…
Why does Gord allow this sort of thing? On Queen’s Speech day and coinciding with good polling news for Labour the Times is carrying the above story on how Number 10 managed to “con” journalists up and down the country that a local school would be featured in the Prime minister’s big education speech last week. They all ran the story but then when the speech was made there was no mention of any schools by name. If I was…
Whoops – the poll I nearly missed! I am just on my way home from the Arsenal – Manchester United clash at the Emirates Stadium and I’ve just discovered that there was a major poll in the Sun this morning that I missed. The headline figures with comparison on last weeks Ipsos-MORI poll in the Observer areCON 40% (nc): LAB 35% (-6): LD 13% (nc). This is a real surprise and is not what I would have expected. As Anthony…
Why Are the Conservatives So Bad at By-Elections? The Conservatives have recovered ground strongly in local elections, in every round of local elections since 1997. Even their opinion poll ratings gradually rose from the disastrous levels of the mid-nineties, after 1997, and rose sharply following David Cameron’s election as Leader. In 2005, they managed to claw back 33 Parliamentary seats, which at least provides a platform for fighting the next election. Yet, in Parliamentary by-elections, their performance has never really…
Is there a political risk in taking unilateral action? According to the First Post online magazine tonight Gordon Brown is planning to take unilateral steps to stop the Tory multi-millionaire, Lord Ashcroft from pouring money into marginal seats between elections. At the same time there will be no constraints on the amount the trade unions can give to Labour – something that the Tories offered in exchange for agreeing to the marginal seats proposal. This looks set to be a…
Tote ‘Ten To Follow’ Competition – A Politicalbetting.com Entry? The Tote’s popular Ten to Follow competition for the jumps season kicks off shortly. As well as being a decent value bet, it provides lots of fun throughout the season and attracts much support from serious and occasional punters alike. The general idea is that you pick out ten horses from the Tote’s list and they score points as and when they succeed in their races during the season. Entry is…
Focus on Wales “Punter†has asked me to comment on the Welsh constituencies on several occasions. As there are 40 Welsh constituencies, then my comments on the likely outcome at the next election must be brief. Wales has been a left-wing stronghold since 1885. Firstly, it was monolithically Liberal, and then, after a period of confusion in the Twenties and Thirties, almost as solid for Labour up till 1979. Even in 1931, Labour won no fewer than 18 out of…