politicalbetting.com

Hillary has a plan; win the popular vote and persuade the super-delegates that she is not just the better candidate but has a moral claim to the nomination. Should the gap in pledged delegates be less than 100, then this might just work. The only problem she has is that the maths is hard; very hard. Excluding Florida, Hillary needs to pull back 410,000 votes between now and the final primary. (And she’ll be hard pressed to include Puerto Rico…

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A typically relaxed PtP awaits news from Ohio & Texas Firstly, very special thanks to Harry for hosting us tonight at Elite – we have now all been in position at our trading desks since about 9pm. The biggest profit so far has been on a greyhound race at Hall Green (thanks to an insider’s tip!) although I’m sure that will change! We are all tuned to CNN and Fox watching events unfold and this has been an excellent “dry-run”…

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Would a $60m February Obama total trump any victories today? One thing that we have not heard from the Obama campaign yet is how much money was raised in February and there’s speculation that this is being put on hold just in case Hillary is seen to have re-gained the momentum in today’s primaries. Her campaign has announced that she raised $35m during the month – a move that just brought a statement from Camp Obama that they had exceeded…

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Elite Betting and the March 4th Primaries In an earlier thread I mentioned at Mike’s request some possible future PB activities but there was one fairly ambitious idea for which I did not have space. There is no doubt that this site has been a colossal success since it started in March 2004. There are many reasons and we could all list a number of ingredients – Mike, his open approach, the free and willing contributions by many talented and…

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How long can he go on after his spokesman’s resignation? The big political news in the UK this morning is about the future of the Speaker of the House of Commons, Michael Martin, following the resignation yesterday of the £2000 a day consultant whose job it is to deal with the media on his behalf. The Mail on Sunday splashes its investigation and reports that the advisor, and former Whitehall mandarin Mike Granatt, had quit “after admitting that the Speaker’s…

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Surprisingly, the server migration appears to have gone through relatively painlessly. Hopefully the site should run a little more quickly now, especially under heavy load. Thanks for your patience, Robert

Boris says he’ll quit as an MP if he beats Ken The Tory candidate for London Mayor has said this afternoon that if elected he will resign as an MP thus creating a by election at his seat in Henley in Oxfordshire. At the 2005 general election Boris held the seat with a 53.5% vote share. The Lib Dems were in second place on 26% with Labour at 15%. On the face of it the seat looks like a safe…

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