Is the Irish vote going down to the wire? With just four days until Ireland votes in the only referendum to be held on the EU’s Lisbon Treaty, recent polls give a contradictory picture. The TNS poll out a few days ago has been the only poll so far to show the No side in the lead, by 35-30, but with a massive 35% of respondents undecided. However, a Red C poll this weekend has shown the Yes camp back…
According to the Telegraph blog there’s a new ICM poll in the paper tomorrow that shows a “healthy” Tory lead. No figures are available. This is the first survey from the pollster since Crewe and Nantwich and it will be interesting to see if the figures are much different from the last survey by the pollster two and a half weeks ago that had C41-L27-LD22. More follows when the detail is available. Mike Smithson (still on holiday in southern Spain)…
How should the Lib Dems handle the Henley campaign? Reproduced above is what happened when my email software, Thunderbird, opened a Henley campaign email sent yesterday from Nick Clegg to thousands of party members, including myself. I’ve included this partly as a bit of fun and to help illustrate a broader question about the by election which has now been set for a fortnight next Thursday – how does Clegg’s party fight in Tory held seats? For in the two…
Wikimedia Commons Are the Conservatives value at almost any price? Following the historic result in Crewe & Nantwich, the next UK betting event for political punters is now underway, with the official announcement that Boris Johnson has been appointed to the Manor of Northstead, the new London Mayor making his final appearance in the Commons today. At the time of writing, the date has not been confirmed but is widely expected to be 26th June. So, what will the opening…
Was it Mark Penn’s strategic failure that sunk Hillary? Lesson 101 of any course on political gambling would surely be “before risking money on an election make sure that you understand how the electoral process works” What’s fairly obvious for a punter should also apply many times over if you are devising and implementing the strategy for a multi-million dollar campaign to secure the Democratic nomination for a major figure such as Hillary Clinton. Yet if reports of his thinking…
Over three years after Mike Smithson suggested that Barack Obama might just be the next President of the United States, the junior Senator from Illinois has made history by becoming the first African American to seal a major party nomination for the Oval Office. Even before the polls are closed in Montana, and in spite of losing South Dakota to Senator Hillary Clinton, Obama has secured the support of sufficient Superdelegates to be assured of an absolute majority at the…
Is she still fighting for the V-P slot? A report on the respected AP newswire within the past fifteen minutes says:- WASHINGTON – Hillary Rodham Clinton will concede Tuesday night that Barack Obama has the delegates to secure the Democratic nomination, campaign officials said, effectively ending her bid to be the nation’s first female president. The former first lady will stop short of formally suspending or ending her race in her speech in New York City. She will pledge to…
Con 44 (+1), Lab 30 (+4), Lib Dem 16 (-3) Andrew Grice has announced that ComRes have a poll in tomorrow’s Independent newspaper, giving the Conservatives 44% and Labour 30%. The Lib Dems have fallen three points back down to 16%. Whilst Labour are up 4% from the last ComRes poll, the Conservatives have also gained, giving them their best score with ComRes since David Cameron became leader. According to UK Polling Report, this is the first time that David…