Why have one in six Labour voters switched to Cameron? The data from the latest ICM poll shows that of those who said they voted Labour at the last general election a total of 18% of them now say that they will be voting Tory. On top of that 11% say they’ll switch to the Lib Dems although the net switch to Clegg’s party is partially offset by some 2005 LD voters going the other way. The conventional way of…
Once lost, could it be reclaimed? Looking at the betting markets, there are clearly plenty of punters who think the Conservatives are almost certain to see Chloe Smith elected on the 23rd July. With the hulabaloo of the national media, by-elections are crucial shapers of the political narrative, but I wonder if their usefulness outlasts the by-election itself. Labour seem doomed to lose the seat that was vacated by ‘Dr Ian Gibson’ after the party foolishly prohibited him from standing…
Is a Conservative victory almost an absolute certainty? With interest rates on savings now at about 0.5% after tax I’ve suggested before that having a political bet on what seems like a certainty might be a good way of getting a return on your money. The government, in their wisdom, have switched the balance between savings and borrowers to such a point that there is no point in doing things like saving up for your retirement. Is it any wonder…
What if the first one isn’t decisive? The general assumption about the result of the next election is that the Conservatives will win it. The opinion polls point to a Tory win, as do the bookies, where the Conservatives are heavily odds-on. That said, favourites are not certainties and a hung parliament remains no longer than 3/1 (with Paddy Power). If that is the result – and it will be if Labour lose more than about a couple of dozen…
PB Mobile How many PBers use default voice-mail settings? The thing I find amazing about the whole telephone-tapping saga, back in the news today with the commons committee hearing, is that it’s so low-tech and so easy for anybody to do. Everything is based on the fact the most mobile users don’t bother to set their own voice-mail pass-word when they get a new phone which means that the default settings – hardly complex combinations like 1, 2, 3, 4…
Mirror.co.uk Is Harriet Harman back on manouevres? My initial response was that it must be an April Fool delivered late by her Press Office, but in the light of a new day it appears that tackling ‘anti-Northern discrimination’ was a genuine policy announcement from the Press Office of Harriet Harman MP QC. Harman has, of course, long been the self-appointed poster child of the equality movement – promoting the equalisation of women, ethnic minorities and LGBTs in British society. I…
Do ICM’s figures start to look like an election result? With just over eight months to go before the general election campaign is due to start the latest survey from ICM for the Guardian underlines the challenge facing Mr. Brown and his party. For while there was a sharpish move away from “others” – which was always going to happen as we got further on from the EU elections – Labour finds itself on a standstill with the Tories and…
CON 41 (+2) LAB 27 (nc) LD 20 (+2) Con lead by 14 – highest Tory ICM share since March The Guardian ICM poll is now out and shows the Conservatives extending their lead over Labour by two points to 14 and above the important 40% barrier. The Conservatives have not scored this well in an ICM poll since March (before the expenses revelations broke) while Labour remain marooned on their second-worst ICM number since last June. Meanwhile the Lib…