CON 38 (-1) LAB 21 (-4) LD 19 (nc) “Others” continue to have big impact on the shares A new poll from Ipsos-MORI shows Labour sharply down on the last survey from the firm taken the weekend before. The firm itself is quoting changes on a poll before the Euro elections when Labour dropped to 18%. This is a steep drop in just a week but perhaps reflects how the media was covering Labour in the period after the EU…
New data points to 158 Tory gains While many Labour MPs might be celebrating that “their man” won yesterday’s election for the speaker there’s a sharp reminder of the challenge the party faces at the election in a new Harris poll for today’s Metro. The pollster which used to be one of the main firms in the UK has hardly been seen for years. The firm seems to operate online and is a member of the British Polling Council which…
What do we make of the differing reports? Two completely different takes on Gordon Brown’s future are reported in the Sunday papers. The Mail claims that Labour sources say that “Gordon Brown may agree to step down as Prime Minister before the next General Election”, while in an interview with the News of the World, Brown himself insists that “it is because of my purpose in politics that I’m determined to lead Labour into the next election”. Meanwhile, in yesterday’s…
CON 39(+1) LAB 22(nc) LD 18 (-2) But why’s there so much variation in the Labour numbers? All but one of the Westminster polls since the June 4th elections have shown the Tories either on 39% or 40%. Where there’s been a big variation has been with the Labour shares. While all of them now have the party in the 20s and in second place the percentages range from 22% to 27% which is outside the margin of error. The…
Where’s this all going to end? The crisis that has dominated UK politics for nearly two months has edged up a notch with the news that four MPs and a peer, all Labour, will face a full criminal investigation. Those are involved are named in the SkyNews report above and this development is not going to make life comfortable for several others who have had questions raised over their activities. What this does is keep the story on the front…
Prices as at 6.30 pm. Click for latest updates Betfair’s last price matched has Beckett as favourite With just three days to go before MPs elect their new speaker there’s been a lot of activity on the betting markets with Bercow, Beckett and Young pulling away from the field. On Betfair the “last prices matched” (at 3.10pm) were Beckett 3.55 (5/2), Young 4.3 (3.3/1), Bercow 5 (4/1), Widdecombe 9.8 (8.8/1). The last price matched is often a better indicator than…
Has redaction just made it a whole lot worse? If anybody thought that the official publication of MPs expense claim forms was going to put an end to the crisis then this morning’s front pages suggest they were wrong. For almost every paper is leading with the same broad story “expenses blackout” – because of the way that most of the documentation is almost totally useless because so much of the key detail been blacked out. All this has done…
CON 39 (-1) LAB 25 (+7) LD 19 (+1) A new poll tonight from Ipsos-MORI has Labour rising above the floor of 18% which was recorded earlier in the month and back into the mid 20s. MORI has a very tight turnout filter and only includes the “100% certains” in its headline figures. This tends to produce quite a lot of turbulence. Another MORI feature is that it weights by whether people work in the public sector or not because…