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Category: General Election

Is Labour going to close the gap?

Is Labour going to close the gap?

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PaddyPower What’ll be their best polling position next month? The innovative Irish bookmaker, PaddyPower , has just introduced a new market on what’s going to happen to the opinion polls in November. A range of prices, see above, has been drawn up linked to the best Labour position in voting intention surveys from Populus, YouGov, ComRes, Ipsos-Mori and ICM during November 2009. This applies to the final date of fieldwork and will be settled according to the UKPollingReport list. I…

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Did Cameron’s speech energise Labour?

Did Cameron’s speech energise Labour?

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And could that make it more dangerous for Brown? The only full post-Tory conference poll, from Populus in the Times on Tuesday, got crowded out of the news agenda because of the developing MPs Expenses saga following ths Sir Thomas Legg letters. Yet I wonder whether the move by Labour to 30% might just indicate a trend? We’ll need some more surveys, of course, but it was a sharp jump very much against what was expected – particularly the ICM…

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Why is the north seeing the biggest changes?

Why is the north seeing the biggest changes?

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Are the big moves in target-rich regions? Whenever the full dataset from a new poll comes out there’s usually a discussion on the site of the regional breakdowns. The problem, of course, is that each sub-set is not subject to the overall weighting calculations and sample sizes are small. In the chart above we see something different – the aggregated MORI polling data for the first nine months of 2009 compared with what happened at the general election in May…

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Is this going to be the final nail?

Is this going to be the final nail?

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And is it made worse by the decision on Jacqui? Almost all the front pages this morning are devoted to the second eruption of the MPs expenses scandal and, in particular, the focus on Mr. Brown. We wait to see whether the further inquiries of Cameron will produce bad headlines for him but for the moment the fact that the PM is going to have to pay a slab of money back is not going to help his chances of…

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Don’t miss “MPs’ Expenses Scandal2 – The Sequel”

Don’t miss “MPs’ Expenses Scandal2 – The Sequel”

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Showing today on a TV screen near you So it’s the first day of the new term and every MP is due to receive a letter reviving the whole MPs expenses scandal. There’s been a build-up over the weekend and clearly some prominent names, including it seems Mr. G. Brown, are going to be told to hand money back. Now, as several papers are reporting, there are suggestions of a revolt with talk of Sir Thomas Legg’s report being rejected….

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Why have more women turned to the Tories than men?

Why have more women turned to the Tories than men?

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What’s behind the gender voting changes? The above chart was prepared by Ben Page, CEO of Ipsos-MORI, and shows the changes on the 2005 general elections broken down by social class and gender. Ben has aggregated all the MORI polling data for the first nine months of 2009 and compares it with what happened at the general election in May 2005. The overall increase in the Tory share is 8 points but notice the big difference between men an women….

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The money goes on an earlier Brown exit

The money goes on an earlier Brown exit

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Sunday Express The Brown “days as PM” index moves back ten days With Gordon Brown having survived Labour’s June election disasters, Norwich North and the conference season the level of activity on the “when will he go” markets has been relatively light. The view was growing that he would lead Labour into the battle against Cameron’s conservatives. That’s changed in the past 24 hours following the Number 10 statement about his eye problems. Could this, after all, be the pretext…

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The Tory ICM lead moves to 19 points

The Tory ICM lead moves to 19 points

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CON 45 (+5) LAB 26 (nc) LD 18 (-5) At last a survey where certainty to vote is key! We have been so overwhelmed by YouGov and YouGov-related surveys (PoliticHome and BPIX) that it comes as something of as relief to get some numbers from one of the leading phone pollsters with a track record going back decades. A key element with ICM is weighting by certainty to vote – something which YouGov doesn’t do and which I believe is…

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