Does it say anything about the election timing? Chris A had an interesting point on the previous thread:- A year ago tomorrow the date for the 2009 budget was announced. It was the last day before the half term recess and gave over two months notice of the date. This year there has been no announcement and Parliament is now in recess and not back for almost two weeks. Maybe there isn’t going to be a budget this year –…
CON 38% (40) LAB 25% (24) LD 20% (19) And will “others” will be squeezed by polling day? There’s a new exclusive PB/Angus Reid poll just out where the fieldwork started on Tuesday and finished only last night. The shares are above and show the Tories down a touch with Labour at its highest ever recorded level with the online pollster. This is the first full national survey to have been carried out since the three Labour MPs and a…
Something else to throw Brown Central off-stride? Another day and another book looking at what goes on within Gordon Brown’s Number 10 written by someone who was close to the heart of the party and government. The latest is by Lance Price, deputy to Tony Blair’s communications director Alastair Campbell and the first part of its serialisation starts today in the Independent. One extract goes: “…When he believes a story is running out of control or that – the worst…
The 2005 final polls: C33% L38% LD23% – MORI C33% L38% LD22% – HARRIS C32% L37% LD25% – YouGov C32% L38% LD22% – ICM C32% L38% LD21% – Populus C33% L36% LD23% – NOP C33% L37% LD21% – BPIX C31% L39% LD23% – COMRES The 2005 result: C33.2% L36.2% LD22.7% Would this factor in likely Labour polling over-statement? In the past week while we’ve been putting the focus on what lead would produce a majority couple of PBers have emailed…
How many of these will there be before the day? I love politics in the raw. It’s all a spectator sport when it’s how parties and leaders handle issues and who is gaining the advantage. We dissect it here to the nth degree and I for one relish every minute. So today’s spat between Dave and Gord was entirely predictable. Yesterday the poster featured above started going up and Labour had to respond fast. What’s being attacked, that a charge…
PoliticsHome Is a referendum promise really going to help them? The above is one of the findings from a PoliticsHome poll on Labour’s plan to legislate for a post general election referendum on the alternative vote system. Although I’m not totally convinced about the wording of the poll questions I think we can draw something from the findings – voters are highly cynical of such a move thirteen years after it first appeared as a Labour manifesto commitment. The damning…
Are all parties underestimating the opposing leaders? James Forsyth had a post on the Spectator CoffeeHouse blog last night setting out a view that’s often expressed on PB threads:- “We just need to ram Gordon Brown down the electorate’s throat’ one Tory staffer said to me today when talking about how the party could get back on the front foot.” The unspoken thought was that the prospect of five more years of Gordon Brown would be enough to send voters…
The map that changed my view of the election I’ve shown this before but it’s worth running again as we try focus on why things might be different in the marginals. For combined with the Andy Cooke analysis and the marginals polling, including last week’s aggregated MORI data, a clearer picture is emerging of the dynamics of the coming election and a better sense of the outcome. The map first appeared here in September 2007 in a guest slot by…