Wikipedia Could 1950 be a good precedent for Labour? As we count down to the 2010 election I’ve been trawling through the numbers from elections long past to see if there are any lessons for today. And the one that Labour might take heart from is 1950 when Clem Attlee’s then party had had a bad period in the polls with deficits of up to six points in the year beforehand. This was turned round in the final months so…
What should we make of his “mandate†comment? It’s unusual for the Lib Dems to get drawn into discussions about possible election results and what they’d do in a hung parliament. There are no easy answers and all scenarios tend to lead the discussion towards Labour and the Conservatives rather than the Lib Dems. So Clegg’s comments yesterday on GMTV form a very interesting position. He said:If a party has got more support and has got a clearer mandate from…
Eve of election PB gathering – March 31st 6.30pm Thanks again to Fat Steve for organising this but we are having a pre-election informal get-together at the historic Dirty Dicks pub opposite the main entrance to Liverpool Street station. The time and date: 6.30 pm Wednesday March 31st. Following the points raised last time about the ventilation we will be in a different part of the pub. There’s no need to register but it would help if those that want…
Could it open up the UNITE-Labour link? Any big development that could affect large numbers of people in such a politically potent period as this has to be looked at in terms of how it could impact on voting in the election. At the very minimum the action could dominate the news media in the weeks before the vote. On top of that it could give the Tories the peg to open up what I think is a highly dangerous…
Yet more polls on the way! Marf, PB’s cartoonist, has been totally tied up for months in a big project but she’s still keen to maintain her links with PB. The above drawing was done for the site’s 5th birthday last year and hasn’t been published before. So as we wait for tonight’s polling news I thought I’d give it a show now. Marf’s work can be found here. Don’t forget to take part in the PB survey. All views…
YouGov daily poll (The Sun) Mar 10 Mar 9 CONSERVATIVES 37% 36% LABOUR 32% 32% LIB DEMS 17% 20% LAB to CON swing from 2005 4% 3.5% And the Lib Dems slump after last night’s boost So the Labour share remains stable tonight with the Tories edging up and the Lib Dems taking quite a hit. This will bring some relief to the blue team which yesterday touched a two and half year low with its 36% share. Meanwhile the…
UNS – Exploring the Distortions I’ve put together a short series on UNS – what it is, what’s its track record, and what levels of distortion have occurred in recent elections. This is part three of three. It is an article of faith that the electoral system is inherently biased against the Conservative Party. Certainly a UNS calculation from the position as of the 2005 General Election is very harsh on the prospects of the Tories. But is this built…
Come on you guys – follow the media narrative? After doing my posting on the Populus marginals poll early yesterday I thought I’d try to make a quick buck by betting £257 on the “no overall majority” option in the Betfair overall majority market. The price I got, was 1.9/1 and my reading was that this would tighten and then I’d be able to get out at a profit. With so many polls all pointing in one direction and the…